663
FXUS64 KMOB 150407
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1107 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions continue through Saturday. Winds remain light
tonight and gradually shift to the south during the day Saturday.
/14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions continue through Saturday. Winds will become light
and variable overnight with north to northeasterly winds
generally prevailing on Saturday. /14

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The heat continues to ramp up as we head into the weekend. Surface
high pressure and upper ridging continue to build in and remain
the dominant weather features for the near term period. Afternoon
highs today have been topping out in the middle to upper 90`s for
most locations, with Saturday looking even warmer as highs soar
into the upper 90`s to near 100 degrees. The good news is it`s a
relatively "drier" heat with afternoon dewpoints falling into the
middle 60`s. This will make it such that heat indices rise into
the 100 to 105 range for most locations Saturday afternoon.
Overnight lows will be warm in the lower to middle 70`s for most
locations tonight. Given the aforementioned upper ridge and
surface high, expect mostly sunny conditions with dry weather
prevailing. A low risk of rip currents remains in place through
Saturday. MM/25

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

An upper ridge over the region shifts a bit eastward during the
period in response to a Plains upper trof which mostly ejects off
across the Great Lakes and a broad upper trof developing over the
western Gulf. A weak surface trof will be located across interior
portions of the forecast area early Saturday evening then dissipates
overnight with a light southerly surface flow otherwise prevailing
through Sunday night. Deep layer moisture looks too limited to
support pops Saturday night, but slight chance to chance pops
return to the forecast on Sunday as deep layer moisture improves
and the sea breeze aids in convective development. Lows Saturday
night and Sunday night range from the lower 70s inland to the
mid/upper 70s at the coast. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower
90s near the coast and in the mid 90s further inland. A low risk
of rip currents Saturday night will be followed by a moderate risk
for Sunday and Sunday night.

A broad and modest upper trof over the western Gulf which extends
weakly into eastern Texas/Oklahoma steadily becomes better defined
and extends further inland through Tuesday. For the forecast area,
this temporarily keeps subsidence effects from an eastern states
upper ridge at bay, though there is uncertainty as to how quickly
drier air manages to work back into the area. A moist southeasterly
surface flow will be in place on Monday and have gone with chance
to likely pops. There is better confidence for Tuesday through
Friday that drier air will be a limiting factor for the coverage
of convection so have gone with slight chance to chance pops for
much of the area for each of those days. A high risk of rip
currents is expected Monday and Tuesday. /29 /22

MARINE...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through
Saturday, with an offshore flow at night into the morning hours
and a mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening
hours. A light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by
Sunday and strengthens as low pressure develops in the southwestern
Gulf. Seas are also expected to increase as we head into early
next week. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  97  74  91  75  88  74  89 /   0  10   0  50  40  70  30  50
Pensacola   74  95  78  90  77  88  77  89 /   0  10  10  60  50  60  40  40
Destin      76  92  79  90  78  90  78  90 /   0  10  20  50  40  50  40  40
Evergreen   72 100  72  95  71  92  71  92 /   0  10  10  40  20  40  10  20
Waynesboro  72 100  72  95  72  88  71  90 /   0  10   0  30  20  60  20  30
Camden      73  99  72  95  72  92  72  91 /   0  10   0  30  20  30  10  20
Crestview   71  99  72  94  72  93  72  93 /   0  10  10  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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