317
FXUS64 KMOB 230433
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1133 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the area through Sunday evening.
Calm or light and variable winds overnight become southwesterly at
5 to 10 knots on Sunday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through Sunday. Winds become calm or
light southwesterly this evening, then a west to southwest flow at
5 to 10 knots follows for Sunday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The forecast remains on track this afternoon with only a few minor
tweaks to lower the dewpoints area-wide based on current observations.
Similar to yesterday, a weak sea breeze continues to slowly progress
inland along the coastal counties with a meager cu field further
inland.

The local area remains on the eastern side of an elongated ridge
aloft while a surface high over the western Atlantic maintains its
grip on much of the Southeast and the eastern Gulf. Slightly drier
air aloft should mix down to the surface both this afternoon and
tomorrow afternoon, allowing dewpoints to drop into the mid to low
60s inland. While it will certainly be toasty tomorrow afternoon
with highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s area-wide, the
dewpoints should temper the heat indices (keeping the heat below
Advisory criteria). That said, we still expect heat indices to rise
into the 100-105 range tomorrow. Note that we won`t have much of
any relief from the heat (in the form of cloud cover or rain) on
Sunday either. Can`t rule out isolated showers and storms as the sea
breeze progresses inland late Sunday afternoon, but coverage will be
isolated at best.

Beach Note: The risk of rip currents remains MODERATE through
Sunday. 07/MB

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Rain chances enter back into the forecast on Monday as an expansive
upper level ridge slowly retrogrades westward and an upper trough
deepens along the Eastern Seaboard. Down at the surface, a weak cold
front is expected to sag southward into the Tennessee Valley and
northern portions of Georgia and Alabama on Monday before becoming
nearly stationary and slowly dissipates. While the front is not
expected to enter into our area, a plume of increased moisture ahead
of this boundary will gradually sink southward with deep layer
moisture improving across our area on Monday. At the same time, the
stronger surface ridging over our area will shift of to the east as
well. With this, precipitable water values will increase to around
1.8 to possibly as high as a little over 2 inches by Monday
afternoon, and this moisture combined with convergence along the sea-
breeze and potential outflow boundaries will aid in the development
of scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening. A
strong storm or two cannot be completely ruled out Monday afternoon,
but we are not expecting any organized severe storms at this time. A
diurnal pattern is expected with regard with convection, so PoPs
will be lower during the overnight hours in the short term,
increasing during the daytime hours. As such, conditions on Tuesday
should be similar to Monday, with scattered afternoon and evening
showers and storms, again a few possibly strong.

It will be toasty outside of any convection on both Monday and
Tuesday, and we`ll could be looking at the need our first Heat
Advisory of the summer by Tuesday when heat index values may be
approaching 108-110 degrees in some locations. Guidance today
(Sunday the 22nd) is running too high on dewpoints, and may still be
doing into the early part of next week, so we will have to monitor
and see if heat index values actually exceed 108 or not. High
temperatures are currently forecast to climb into the middle 90s for
most locations, with a few upper 90s possible, which would be about
5-7 degrees above average for this time of year. Near the coast,
highs will only be in the lower 90s however, perhaps upper 80s at
the beaches with the onshore flow. The increasing moisture combined
with these temperatures will result in heat index values around 105
degrees on Monday and, as mentioned, possibly up to around 108-110
degrees on Tuesday, although as mentioned dewpoints could remain low
enough that we will remain just below Heat Advisory criteria. DS/12

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A more active pattern will take hold as we head into mid to late
week. The aforementioned upper level ridging becomes centered over
the Desert Southwest on Wednesday and Thursday while broad upper
troughing lingers over much of the eastern US. This pattern will
place the local area within a northwesterly flow aloft through
Thursday, and with the general weakness aloft combined with daytime
heating the diurnal convective pattern will continue. What is left
of the surface frontal boundary will continue to linger just to the
north of the forecast area through Thursday, with surface riding
primarily to our east and south, and guidance is also still showing
weak shortwave activity in the flow aloft late Wednesday and
Thursday. With this, PoPs will probably be even higher than in the
short term period (in the LIKELY (60 to 70 percent) category both
Wednesday and Thursday, with isolated to scattered PoPs persisting
into the overnight hours. By Friday and Saturday, surface ridging
builds back into our area, although some weakness continues aloft.
This will reduce PoPs somewhat Friday and Saturday, but still
looking a CHANCE (40 to 50 percent) of showers and storms each day.
Isolated to scattered PoPs each evening, especially over the
southern third of the forecast area, down near the coast, where
moisture will be more available.

The heat will continue into the latter part of the week, but ambient
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Wednesday and
Thursday (thanks to the increased rain chances and cloud cover),
but it will still be rather warm and humid with heat index values
likely staying just below Heat Advisory criteria through late
week. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms next week. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  94  75  95  76  94  76  94 /   0  10   0  30  20  40  20  60
Pensacola   76  93  78  95  80  93  79  92 /   0  10   0  30  20  50  30  60
Destin      78  92  80  92  80  91  80  91 /   0  10  10  30  20  50  30  50
Evergreen   70  97  72  96  74  97  73  92 /   0  10   0  40  20  50  30  70
Waynesboro  71  97  74  97  74  97  74  94 /   0  10   0  30  20  50  30  60
Camden      71  96  74  95  74  97  73  91 /   0  10   0  30  20  50  30  70
Crestview   71  98  73  97  74  97  74  94 /   0  10   0  40  20  50  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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