669
FXUS64 KMOB 241145
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
645 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Calm or light and variable winds become southwesterly 5 to 10
knots along the coast in the afternoon south of a sea-breeze
pushing inland, while remaining light and variable north of the
sea-breeze. VFR conditions are anticipated except for MVFR
conditions with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly this afternoon into early evening. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 506 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Anticipating an uptick in heat indices today compared to the past
couple of days, along with a return of scattered thunderstorms. We
are monitoring an expanse of clouds across the central portions
of Mississippi and Alabama into northern Georgia ahead of a
surface trough and boundary. These surface features will continue
to slip southward through this afternoon, but are expected to
stall before reaching our forecast area. In addition, there is an
upper trough over the eastern states that will dig a bit further
southward along the Eastern Seaboard, and regional radar mosaic is
currently detecting an increase in showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity across central Alabama that are moving
south-southeastward at around 13 mph.

A plume of increased moisture ahead of this system will gradually
sink southward with deep layer moisture improving that will bring
our precipitable water values as high 2 inches in the afternoon.
The showers are anticipated to move into the northern portions of
our forecast area this morning, with deeper convection expected by
late morning as MLCAPE values increase to around 2500 J/Kg.
Expect a more pronounced round of convection closer to the coast
by mid afternoon as the sea breeze ramps up. A strong storm or two
cannot be completely ruled out Monday afternoon, but we are not
expecting any organized severe storms at this time. A lull in
convection overnight will be followed by another round of
afternoon scattered storms on Tuesday, again as MLCAPE values
increase to around 2500 J/Kg.

No changes were made to the current Heat Advisory for today across
southeast Mississippi, portions of southwest Alabama, and the
entire western Florida Panhandle where the best potential of
hitting Heat Advisory criteria (108+) before the storms ramp up.
Another Heat Advisory will likely be required on Tuesday across
these same areas, and may need to be expanded a bit further to the
north.

High temperatures today should range from 93 to 98 degrees inland
and low 90s at the coast, or 3-7 degrees above normal. High temps
Tuesday have the potential of ranging from 95 to around 101
degrees inland (6-10 degrees above normal), with low 90s at the
coast. Low temperatures will be warm and range from 72 to 77
degrees inland from 77 to 82 degrees along the coast. /22

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 506 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Temperatures will be tempered somewhat as we head into the middle
of this week and rain chances increase. A longwave upper trough
strengthens on Wednesday and Thursday over the eastern US as a few
embedded shortwaves slide within a mean northwest flow over the
Southeastern States. Down at the surface, a weak boundary will
continue to linger over central and southern portions of Alabama
with drier air nosing in behind the boundary. This stalled surface
feature combined with the shortwaves overhead will interact with
the daily sea-breeze/outflow boundaries and help to increase
shower and storm activity both Wednesday and Thursday. Plenty of
deep layer moisture is expected to be in place across the area
with PWATs reaching to around 1.8-2.0 inches and even up to around
2.3 inches at times. Storm coverage is expected to become more
numerous during the afternoon and evening hours both days as peak
heating occurs and the shortwave slide overhead. Deep layer shear
remains low during this time, but we could see a few strong storms
develop with gusty winds being the main concern. Ambient
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be a couple degrees
lower than what we will see earlier in the week given the higher
rain chances. Although, it will still feel hot. High temperatures
are forecast to top out in the lower and middle 90s both Wednesday
and Thursday with heat index values generally reaching up to
around 105 degrees.

As we head into Friday, subtropical ridging begins to build back
into the Southeastern US. This ridging is expected remain overhead
through the weekend and will bring increasing subsidence to the
area. With the rising heights and drier air aloft, temperatures
will warm back into the middle 90s and perhaps even the upper 90s
each afternoon. Moisture at the surface will remain abundant with
light southerly flow persisting through the weekend. This moisture
combined with the hot ambient temperatures may result in heat
indices approaching Heat Advisory criteria again this weekend.
Daily chances for showers and storms will also continue into the
weekend, but coverage is expected to become more isolated and
scattered in nature as the ridging builds overhead. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 506 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

No hazardous impacts expected as a light to occasionally moderate
southwesterly to westerly flow is expected throughout the week.
/22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  76  97  77  94  74  93  75 /  50  20  30  10  50  50  60  30
Pensacola   94  79  95  79  93  78  92  77 /  50  30  30  20  50  40  60  40
Destin      90  80  91  81  91  79  90  79 /  50  30  30  20  50  40  60  40
Evergreen   95  72  99  73  95  72  93  72 /  50  10  30  20  60  40  60  20
Waynesboro  96  74 100  74  96  72  94  72 /  40  10  30  20  60  40  50  20
Camden      95  72  98  72  96  71  93  72 /  30   0  10  10  50  40  50  20
Crestview   97  75  99  75  96  72  94  72 /  50  20  30  20  60  40  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ052-059-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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