Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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380 FXUS64 KMOB 222309 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 609 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday with the exception of some patchy late night fog. Winds become calm or light and variable early this evening, then a southerly flow near 10 knots develops on Thursday. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Upper level ridging will shift slightly south out over the Gulf tonight and Thursday, with nearly zonal flow aloft expected over our area. Surface high pressure, centered in the Atlantic off the US east coast will continue to ridge into the region from the east, while a frontal boundary stalls well to our northwest. With this pattern, a persistent, light south to southeast flow will continue, with atmospheric moisture gradually increasing. Although moisture will be increasing, high pressure will remain firm across our area, so any weather associated with the frontal boundary will weaken as well as remain to our west and northwest. There could be a very isolated shower or storm associated with the late afternoon heating and the sea breeze circulation near the coast, but chances are far too low to include a PoP or QPF and the dry pattern with mostly clear skies (with scattered to broken cumulus during the afternoon hours) and above normal warmth will continue. Lows tonight will range from the low/mid 60s inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast, and mid 70s along the immediate beaches and barrier islands. Temperatures will remain quite warm, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 inland and low to mid 80s near and along the coast. DS/12 LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will remain in place through at least Sunday as an upper ridge remains cemented over the southwestern Gulf. A few shortwaves look to push along the northern periphery of this ridge, however the best forcing is expected to remain well to our north. Although this will likely spark showers and storms outside of our area, any storms that attempt to approach our region will likely dissipate due to the presence of the ridge and a surface high building near the Florida Peninsula. By the start of the week, an upper trough will push into the eastern half of the US, helping to flatten the upper ridge and shove it further south. Embedded shortwave impulses are also expected to round the base of the trough as it slides east. At the surface, the high will drift into the western Atlantic as a late-season cold front begins to move into the region Monday night into Tuesday. This front, along with the shortwave impulses overhead, will allow for scattered showers and storms to return to the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Best rain chances (up to 40 percent) look to occur during the afternoon hours thanks to diurnal heating. The front slips offshore sometime late Tuesday and a much drier airmass filters in from the north for Tuesday night and into Wednesday, with long-range deterministic models suggesting dew points dropping into the 50s for most areas. Highs through Monday will top out in the upper 80s along the coast and the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Heat indices by the weekend could approach the 97- 102 degree mark. The highest dew points could be seen out ahead of the front on Monday, allowing for heat indices to rise to around 100- 107 in many locations. Lows through Monday will only fall into the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s along the coast. Temperatures return to seasonal norms by midweek after the front moves through. A Low risk of rip currents continues through Saturday, increasing to Moderate on Sunday. /96 MARINE... Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 A mainly light onshore flow pattern will continue over the marine area through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Seas generally 2 feet or less. Winds will increase slightly over the weekend with a slight building of seas over the Gulf waters as well. No significant hazards to small craft are expected through the weekend. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 68 87 72 89 72 90 73 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 71 85 74 86 74 88 76 87 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 Destin 73 84 74 84 76 86 77 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 66 89 68 91 70 93 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 10 10 Waynesboro 66 90 69 92 71 94 71 93 / 10 10 0 0 10 10 0 10 Camden 66 89 69 91 71 92 70 91 / 0 10 0 10 10 20 10 10 Crestview 65 89 67 90 70 92 70 90 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob