737
FXUS64 KMOB 152334
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
634 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions continue through Sunday morning. Local reductions
to ceilings and visibilities will be possible in and around
convection on Sunday. Scattered showers and storms will begin to
move into coastal portions of the area Sunday morning before
spreading inland and becoming more numerous through the afternoon
and evening hours. Light winds tonight become southeasterly around
10 knots on Sunday. /14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Upper level ridging continues to extend from the northern Gulf Coast
into the Tennessee Valley region this afternoon. A broad surface
ridge of high pressure is also located across much of the eastern
CONUS. A seabreeze circulation has developed near coastal portions
of our forecast area this afternoon and satellite imagery shows
cumulus congesting along this feature as of 3 PM CDT. A very isolated
shower or thunderstorm could develop in the vicinity of the western
FL panhandle through late this afternoon, but the chance of
measurable precipitation looks to be less than 15%. Hot temperatures
otherwise continue underneath the ridge axis with readings mostly in
the mid 90s over inland locations and around 90 along the coast as
of 3 PM. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 inland and in the 70s
along the immediate coast are supporting heat index values in the
upper 90s to around 104 degrees.

The upper level ridge axis will slowly move eastward and will
gradually strengthen over northern Georgia and into the Carolinas on
Sunday. A region of enhanced moisture in association with an
inverted trough axis extending across the southwestern and southern
Gulf is expected to lift northward into much of our forecast area
along the southwestern periphery of the building ridge on Sunday.
Precipitable water values will increase to around or a little above
2 inches across coastal portions of the CWA. We expect scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially from late
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts are generally
forecast to average between .25" and .5" on Sunday but locally
heavier rainfall amounts in excess of 1-2" could quickly fall over a
few locations, especially near the coast. Associated runoff could
result in minor/nuisance flooding over a few locations Sunday. Lows
tonight will be warm in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees along the immediate coast. High
temperatures are forecast to range in the lower to mid 90s again
over inland locations and in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
along the immediate coast. Increasing southeasterly flow will result
in a HIGH rip current risk Sunday into the early part of next week.
/21

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Wetter and relatively cooler weather is the story for the short
term period. Upper ridging remains in place across the eastern
CONUS with deep layer southerly to southeasterly flow established
across the forecast area. The Central American Gyre (CAG) remains
in place across the Yucatan into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,
and with the aforementioned prevailing deep layer southerlies it
can be expected that a large plume of deep moisture will advect
into the region Sunday through Tuesday from the CAG. Most model
guidance brings in PWAT values upwards of 2 to 2.25 inches which
will foster the potential for very heavy rainfall in any storms.
Given this and subtle disturbances moving into the area
anticipate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during
the period with greatest chances west of the I-65 corridor,
particularly Monday. Ridging becomes a little more dominant across
the area Tuesday which will allow for better precipitation
chances to slide west of the area, however still expect scattered
shower and thunderstorm coverage during the period.

With regard to the heavy rain potential, it looks like most areas
over the interior will have rainfall totals between a half inch to
an inch while locations across southeastern MS into southwestern
AL have the potential for several inches. Given these rainfall
totals will occur over the course of several days, it doesn`t
appear there will be a substantial flash flood threat at this
time. Of course, all it takes is several hours of training
thunderstorms to cause problems and rack up the rainfall totals
quickly so we will continue to monitor things as we move forward
in time.

Temperatures will be relatively cooler across the area, topping
out in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s for the afternoon hours Monday
and Tuesday while overnight lows only fall into the lower to
middle 70`s. A High risk for rip currents will remain in effect
through Tuesday night. MM/25

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Upper ridging remains parked across the eastern U.S. to round out
the week. As our plume of tropical moisture gradually shifts to
the west we should see a return to a more typical diurnal cycle
for showers and storms with generally isolated to perhaps
scattered coverage focused nearer the coastal counties in
association with the seabreeze boundary. In a somewhat interesting
trend the past 24 hours a tropical wave over the southwestern
Atlantic may push west underneath the upper ridging into the
southeastern U.S. by the end of the week. There is considerable
variability on the track and strength of the feature, but
depending on its eventual path it may provide for an increase in
rain and thunderstorm chances late week. Expect a return to hot
conditions as highs warm back into the lower to middle 90`s by
late week into the weekend while lows remain lower to middle 70`s
most nights. MM/25

MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A light to moderate southeasterly flow will become established over
the marine area tonight and will persist through the remainder of
the weekend. A moderate to strong southeasterly flow along with
building seas is anticipated Monday through Wednesday as the
gradient increases between low pressure developing over the
southwestern Gulf and high pressure across the Atlantic. Small Craft
Advisories may become necessary during the early to middle part of
next week. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  89  74  84  74  87  74  89 /   0  70  60  80  40  50  30  40
Pensacola   78  89  76  87  78  89  77  89 /  10  70  50  70  40  50  40  40
Destin      79  89  78  89  78  89  77  90 /  10  60  50  50  40  40  40  30
Evergreen   71  93  72  89  71  91  70  91 /  10  60  20  50  20  20  10  10
Waynesboro  71  93  72  84  71  87  71  90 /   0  60  30  70  30  40  20  20
Camden      72  95  71  88  71  90  72  91 /  10  40  20  50  10  20  10  10
Crestview   73  91  72  91  71  93  71  93 /   0  60  30  50  20  30  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Wednesday
     morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Wednesday
     morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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