565
FXUS64 KMOB 060456
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1156 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will develop Thursday morning through
the early afternoon as a weak boundary moves through the area.
Localized brief reductions in ceilings and visbys can be expected
in and near thunderstorms. /13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A well defined shortwave trof oriented along the lower/mid
Mississippi River valley progresses into the extreme southeast
states and northeastern Gulf through Thursday. This feature is
embedded within northwesterly flow aloft created by a large scale
western states ridge/eastern states trof pattern. A weak surface
trof (associated with the shortwave trof) will be oriented near
the lower/mid Mississippi River valley early this evening, then
progresses slowly into the western portion of the forecast area
through Thursday afternoon. Abundant deep layer moisture will be
in place over the area tonight, with precipitable water values
trending from 1.6-2.0 inches this evening to 1.8-2.1 inches
overnight. Similar values continue for Thursday with the exception
of drier air working into the westernmost portions of the area in
the afternoon. A decaying MCS over portions of southwestern
Louisiana and much of coastal Texas has sent an outflow boundary
with convection advancing into south central Louisiana. MLCAPE
values ahead of this convection (and into the forecast area) are
typically 2000-2500 J/kg with similar values continuing into the
early evening. While not handled particularly well by current
CAMS, anticipate that convection will tend to be cold pool
dominant, helping to maintain the outflow boundary, with at least
some convection progressing into the forecast area this evening.
0-3 km bulk shear values may increase to near 40 knots this
evening over western portions of the area, and some strong storms
cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, shear values look to be generally
low overnight into Thursday. The shortwave trof and the
approaching weak surface trof will serve to support chance to
likely pops over the area on Thursday, with the coverage
diminishing over the western portions in the afternoon as drier
air begins to work into the area late in the day. Lows tonight
range from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s near the
coast. Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the upper 80s. A
moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday. /29

SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Northwesterly flow remains persistent in the upper levels through
Saturday night while a late season cold front continues to inch
through the area on Friday. A small chance for showers and storms
will be possible along immediate coastal areas Friday afternoon as
the front sags south and when peak heating is maximized, but
otherwise most areas should remain dry. This front will bring
even drier air into the region Friday night and into Saturday with
PWATs falling to around 1 inch or less. This subsidence will keep
conditions dry and mostly sunny on Saturday. There won`t be much
of a temperature change behind the front. Highs top out in the
upper 80s and lower 90s both Friday and Saturday afternoons. The
"coolest" night will be Friday night with low temperatures ranging
from the lower 60s inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. /14

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Rain chances return to the forecast late in the weekend and
especially as we head into early next week. Northwesterly flow
will generally continue in the upper levels on Sunday as upper
ridging builds in from the west and broad upper troughing lingers
over the eastern US. Boundary layer moisture gradually increases
on Sunday with PWAT values approaching 1-1.5 inches. A few
summertime showers and storms will be possible across the area
during the afternoon and early evening hours on Sunday.
Temperatures will be hot outside of any convection Sunday
afternoon with highs topping out in the lower to perhaps middle
90s.

Going into early next week, a shortwave is expected to slide
across the Midwestern states and dive down into the Southeastern
US. This will nudge the upper ridging south and west of the local
area. There are still some discrepancies among the global
guidance on timing and exact evolution of this shortwave feature,
but general trends indicate that this system will send another
cold front down into the local area later in the day Monday and
into Monday night. Showers and storms are expected to increase in
coverage ahead of and along this front on Monday. Current guidance
indicates that the front will likely get hung up along the coast
or just offshore through the middle of the week which will result
in better rain chances being focused to southern portions of the
area. Temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees early next
week behind the front with highs topping out in the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

No impacts are expected through the period except for higher
winds and seas near storms. A light to occasionally moderate
southerly flow becomes southwesterly tonight and west to northwest
for Thursday night and Friday. A light southerly flow develops on
Saturday and becomes west to southwest on Sunday and Monday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  89  71  93  67  91  72  92 /  40  60   0  10   0   0   0  20
Pensacola   76  88  74  92  70  90  75  92 /  40  70  20  20  10   0   0  20
Destin      76  86  75  90  72  89  76  89 /  40  70  20  20  10   0   0  10
Evergreen   71  89  69  92  63  92  67  93 /  50  70  10  10   0   0  10  20
Waynesboro  69  89  69  91  63  92  69  93 /  60  40   0   0   0   0   0  20
Camden      69  87  68  89  62  90  66  92 /  50  60   0   0   0   0  10  20
Crestview   71  89  69  94  64  93  66  94 /  40  70  10  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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