Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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682 AWUS01 KWNH 302052 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-310205- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0349 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 451 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...Northeast NM...Texas Panhandle... Oklahoma Panhandle... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 302050Z - 310205Z SUMMARY...Expanding cluster at apex of solid moisture return. Some cells may cross areas recently affected by heavy rainfall. Spots of flash flooding becoming possible through evening. DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows an expanding cluster of thunderstorms over far NE NM into the Western OK and Northwestern TX Panhandles. This is at the apex of return moisture axis along the outflow reinforced frontal zone that exists along the NM/TX boarder. This southerly flow intersecting with a slight dryline bulge near the SE Colorado surface low, provided and continues to support moisture flux of this enhanced moisture/theta-E air....with 1.25 total PWats in place, slowly increasing with time. CIRA LPW also denotes an enhanced pocket of modest moisture in the 850-700 and 700-500 layer in proximity of the developing complex, likely resulting in its further expansion. MLCAPEs are uncapped with 2000-2500 J/kg to support stronger updrafts and with magnitude of flux convergence should support 1.5"/hr rates perhaps slightly higher with storm scale interaction. Deep layer steering is weak toward the northeast at 5-10kts, but propagation and access to the higher theta-E air will allow for a southeastward propagation and further expansion of the cluster into a larger complex through the evening. As such, localized totals of 3" are possible through the track which is expected across the Canadian River Valley of the Texas Panhandle where higher FFG values exist. However, further southward expansion near the dry line and outflow reinforced cold front may also expand in development southward into the Cap Rock where recent heavy rainfall has reduced FFG values allowing for similar rates/totals to potentially exceed. With southwesterly flow aloft and expected slow westward retrograde of the dry line/front, flanking line redevelopment and steering flow may allow for short-term training/repeating as we have seen in the last few days increasing potential for localized FF to be possible this evening. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36910229 36450103 35409969 33919970 33250117 33820336 35510412 36300344