Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
428 AWUS01 KWNH 170902 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-171500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1028 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 170900Z - 171500Z SUMMARY...An area of low center over northern SC will maintain a threat of locally training bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms this morning over eastern NC. Some additional areas of flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery along with surface observations shows low pressure over northern SC. This couple with surface high pressure over the Northeast continues to favor a persistent and moist, convergent low-level easterly Atlantic fetch across the southern Mid-Atlantic region. High PWs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches coupled with a nose of modest instability with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg continues to focus across eastern NC out ahead of a frontal occlusion. This is continuing to allow for the development of some broken bands of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity. The latest radar imagery shows the heaviest rains impacting portions of Carteret and Craven Counties where rainfall rates, especially in close proximity to Morehead City, have been locally as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour over the last couple of hours. Additional bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning to slowly lift north and northwestward across areas of eastern NC as the overall frontal occlusion pivots a bit farther north across the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Persistent easterly flow off the Atlantic and an influx of modest instability should favor high rainfall rates continuing with some of the broken convective bands that maintain some stronger organization. The latest hires model guidance generally favors areas of far eastern NC with the heaviest additional rainfall totals, with more modest amounts farther inland as the nose of instability wanes. Some localized additional totals of 3 to 6+ inches of rain cannot be ruled out this morning within any of the heavier training convective bands. This will certainly maintain an additional threat for areas of flash flooding. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36577753 36377606 35877552 35427538 35207552 34977599 34727630 34827674 35327723 35767829 36327834