Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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797 AWUS01 KWNH 170710 FFGMPD MIZ000-171300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0451 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 309 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...southern portions of Lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 170708Z - 171300Z Summary...Localized flash flooding from training and 2-4 inch rainfall totals will be possible across southern portions of Lower Michigan through 13Z. Discussion...A long-lived MCV was noted to be tracking east across southern portions of Lower Michigan at 0635Z. The MCV was centered about 30 miles WSW of Lansing, although an additional circulation was noted ~30 miles ESE of Lansing via KDTX radar imagery. SPC mesoanalysis data showed that an area of ~500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE has been moving east with the circulation over the past 2-4 hours with WSW low level flow allowing for advection of higher moisture into the region along with training of cells at times within the ongoing small complex of thunderstorms, supporting peak rainfall rates between 1-2 in/hr. The MCV is expected to maintain an east or east-northeast track over the next 3-6 hours toward Ontario. Thermodynamic and kinematic parameters appear to remain steady state or favorable for repeating/training of heavy rain at times across southern Michigan. While likely to remain isolated, the addition of 2-4 inches of rain may cause flash flooding, especially if heavy rainfall can maintain into the Detroit metropolitan region where the urban landscape will have greater susceptibility to runoff from heavy rain. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...IWX... ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 43348274 42998254 42448268 41838348 41818527 42388559 42858538 43228447