Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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023 AWUS01 KWNH 102229 FFGMPD TXZ000-110400- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0419 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 629 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...Cap Rock into Rolling Plains of Northwest Texas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 102230Z - 110400Z SUMMARY...Deepening more efficient cells with slower cell motions in proximity to the upper low likely to develop into a forward propagating line with 1.75"/hr rates crossing lower FFG/recently saturated soil conditions; pose possible scattered flash flooding into this evening. DISCUSSION...GOES-E satellite imagery suite depicts well defined fairly symmetric closed low over central Eastern NM. Recent RADAR and Visible loop shows solid convective initiation with recent uptick/rapidly cooling in the eastern quadrant of the low. Solid insolation and increased southeasterly low level inflow of 15-20kts has provided sufficient convergence of increased pocket of 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE air at the nose of enhanced moisture q-axis that lays out through the Red River Valley (and south) with 1.5" TPW starting to reach west of 100W. As such, rainfall efficiency will start to increase from 1.5"/hr to 1.75" over the next few hours. Initially, cell motions will be dominated by weak steering near the upper-low allowing for increased duration. Eventually, weak cold pools and southeast propagation from veering low level inflow will increase cell motions to the south-southeast. Still spots of 2-3" are probable over areas that received heavy rainfall last evening into this morning. As such NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40 relative soil moisture values are dotted above 60% through the CAP Rock into Northwest Texas. FFG values of 1-1.5/1hr and 1.5-2"/3hr have a modestly high probability to be exceeded with the stronger cells, though forward cell motions will reduced totals to 1-2" as they approach the most compromised soil conditions along and east of 100W. As such, confidence of flash flooding is not very high but enough to suggest possible scattered instances through the late evening into early overnight period. Points further south into the northern Permian Basin are not as saturated but may have stronger perhaps rotating cells capable of more intense short-term rates, but still may not exceed the higher FFG. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34660260 34660136 34249976 33319928 32589968 32360055 32500185 32910264 33570300 34360296