![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
327 AWUS01 KWNH 142106 FFGMPD PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150305- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0439 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 505 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Areas affected...Southeast OH...Southwest PA...Northern WV...Far Western MD Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 142105Z - 150305Z SUMMARY...A localized concern for some flash flooding may evolve over the next few hours from some occasional training of showers and thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to gradually settled southeast through the OH Valley and will be crossing into the central Appalachians this evening as a broader upper-level trough arrives from the Great Lakes region. This front coupled with a weak wave of low pressure riding along it will facilitate at least a few broken bands of showers and thunderstorms over the next several hours for areas of southeast OH, southwest PA, northern WV and far western MD. GOES-E visible satellite imagery along with dual-pol radar already shows the development of some shower and thunderstorm activity, and an additional expansion and organization of this convection is expected over the next couple of hours. The latest RAP analysis shows a moderately unstable airmass with MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg pooled up along and just ahead of the cold front, and there are favorable shear parameters with as much as 30 to 40 kts supporting organized and sustainable updrafts. Some of the convection is already taking on a somewhat linear orientation over far northern WV near the southwest PA border, and the concern at least locally heading into the evening hours will be some of these convective bands potentially training over the same area as they advancing gradually into the central Appalachians. The PWs are about 1.3 to 1.5 inches, and with the instability and shear, the rainfall rated with these cells will be capable of reaching 1.5 inches/hour. Given some considerations for occasional cell-training, some spotty storm totals of 2 to 3 inches with isolated heavier amounts will be possible. This will support a threat for localized instances of flash flooding. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40347953 40347846 39727827 39007900 38998099 39468275 40158273 40198190 40238094