Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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781 AWUS01 KWNH 100626 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-101118- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0417 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 225 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle, Texas South Plains, and north Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 100618Z - 101118Z Summary...Flash flooding remains likely through at least 11Z as areas of deep convection continue to develop and move slowly along an axis from Amarillo to Wichita Falls to near Abilene. Discussion...Flash flood potential continues. Recent radar mosaic imagery denotes continued deep convective development across portions of the Panhandle east-southeastward through western North Texas. A weak surface boundary and robust difluence aloft downstream of mid/upper disturbance across the southern Rockies continues to promote ascent of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass across the region (with instability strongest across areas of north Texas that have not yet been convectively overturned). Additionally, weak low-level easterly flow continues to aid in advection and maintenance of a very moist airmass (upper 60s to 70F dewpoints and 1.8 inch PW values) toward areas of ongoing deep convection. Weak steering flow aloft continues to result in slow movement of individual cells, with 2-3 inch/hr rain rates estimated per MRMS. This axis of precipitation has been fairly active despite widespread convective overturning/stabilization earlier across large portions of the Texas South Plains. The ongoing scenario will continue to evolve slowly and pose a flash flood risk across the discussion area through at least 11Z. Low-level stabilization is gradually resulting in more limited opportunity for heavier rainfall to materialize, although this process will take time to unfold and eliminate flash flood potential on a widespread basis (per models/00Z HREF). FFG thresholds (ranging from 1 inch/hr in the Panhandle to 2.5 inches/hr across western north Texas) are being exceeded occasionally - further suggestive of flash flood potential for the next few hours. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36070211 35450020 34409803 33609715 32749694 32419824 32700036 33840163 34240242 34750314 35520345 35960291