509
AWUS01 KWNH 241905
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-250104-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1048
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee, Central/Eastern Kentucky, into
southern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241904Z - 250104Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm clusters ahead of cold front may
bring 1.5-2.5" resulting in isolated flash flooding into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional NEXRAD and GOES-E IR imagery shows a few
thunderstorm clusters have developed over middle TN and central KY
which is ahead of a cold front. Recent rainfall estimates of
1.5"/hr are seen south of Cincinnati and north of Nashville.
Sufficient moisture of 1.6 to 1.7" PW and instability with MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/kg are allowing this heavy development. SWly low level
flow, which is parallel to the advancing cold front, is 25-30kt
which will keep a repeating thunderstorm threat into the evening
and slow eastward progression despite relatively quick storm
motions in 45kt mean layer steering flow.

There are more flash-flood susceptible areas in the outlook
including south central KY where 2-3" fell overnight, urban areas
such as the ones mentioned above, and over northern KY where 3hr
FFG is around 1". This scattered activity will continue to produce
1-2" in a couple hours with localized amounts of 3" possible into
the evening. Should these higher totals fall on the more
susceptible areas, flash flooding is possible. Overall the flash
flooding is more of an isolated threat.


Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39678323 39028216 37978207 36338398 34478767
            34628872 35478823 36498724 37468652 38028600
            39098487