Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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832 FXUS63 KMPX 071749 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1249 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers likely Friday night into Saturday morning. - Warming trend as we head into next week with a few slight rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Today... Clear skies overnight will continue into this morning. CLouds will start to move in from west to east this afternoon into tonight as the next round of rain moves in. Temperatures should rise to about normal in the 70s today with the sunny start to the day. This will be enough by the afternoon for good mixing, but winds aloft are lower today and it will not be as windy as yesterday. It should still get gusty again late morning into afternoon, just at lower speeds maxing out more in the 20-25 mph range. There will be some RH values falling into the 25 to 35 percent range, so we will be on the edge of fire weather criteria. With recent rains and the removal of drought conditions though this should help limit fire weather concerns today. Tonight into Saturday... As temperatures fall this evening into tonight moisture advection will help saturate the air. This combined with a shortwave aloft should support rain showers tonight into Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are not particularly high for this time of year up around an inch, so QPF is not impressive in most ensemble guidance. Also not much in the way of instability, so thunderstorms are unlikely. So a good setup for some light rain with most under a 0.25", but a region of 0.25-05" is possible based on the 00Z HREF. Best chance appears to be east central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin based on the expected tracks of the showers. After the shortwave passes, Saturday should be a pretty nice day with clearing skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Sunday through Thursday... Looking ahead, next week is where the spread really starts to increase. Overall a warming trend with above normal temperatures more likely by the end of the week. How warm and what rain chances we get though is less certain. Looking at the latest LREF the GEFS favor a cooler and wetter pattern with the GEPS favoring warmer and drier. The ENS is more in the middle. Looking to deterministic models the GFS is the dry one with the ECMWF looking wetter for us. So when are these rain chances? There looks to be two periods of synoptic support late Sunday and Tuesday. Neither had a particularly strong signal, so PoP values have been kept low until there is some better clustering in the ensemble guidance and better agreement in the forcing mechanisms in the deterministic models. What is more certain is the warming trend. WAA kicks up in the later part of the week with 80s looking likely and 90 on the upper quartile. Basically after a few late spring days ahead the later part of next week will feel like summer has arrived. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Solid VFR conditions at initialization for all sites with breezy NW winds 10-15kts gusting 15-20kts. Cloud cover will steadily increase late this afternoon through this evening and decks will lower to the 100-150 range. As the evening progresses, chances for showers will increase, so have converted the PROB30`s to TEMPO`s and prevailing groups due to the higher confidence. Smaller chances for CB/TS during the initial few hours of the rain shield, especially over southern MN so have included mention of convection there with conditions likely dropping into MVFR although IFR cannot be ruled out for either visibility or ceilings. Winds will go light/variable overnight then pick up from the north after sunrise as conditions improve back to VFR and the rain shifts off to the east. KMSP...VFR conditions through the afternoon push with breezy NW winds gradually diminishing. Upper level ceilings expected late afternoon with ceilings lowering going through the evening hours. Light rain expected prior to midnight with rain then continuing through the overnight hours. There is a small window of having CB/TS overnight as CAMs do show modest low level jetting and residual instability but any storms will be quite weak and short-lived. Ceilings will still drop into MVFR range near sunrise and remain there through late Saturday morning before improvement to VFR occurs around noon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...JPC