901
FXUS63 KMPX 030827
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
327 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today...Rain ending this morning across MN, with afternoon
  redevelopment across western WI. The risk for severe weather
  is low.

- Tuesday...Widespread rain is likely. The severe weather risk
  is unchanged (Marginal, 1 out of 5). Pockets of heavy rain
  possible, mainly eastern MN and western WI.

- Wednesday into Monday...Breezy and cooler weather expected
  Wednesday into next weekend, with occasional chances for rain.
  The risk for severe weather or heavy rain is very low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

TODAY...Early morning satellite and radar imagery showed
widespread convection across the Upper Midwest, with a few
cooler cloud tops associated with stronger updraft cores.
Overall these were typical thunderstorms, producing locally
heavy rain and wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. A broad upper level
trough with warm air advection ahead of it was the driving force
behind these storms, and this is forecast to move eastward later
today. It should clear Minnesota by late morning, but could see
some redevelopment across western Wisconsin into the afternoon.
Currently just have smaller chances for precipitation (20 to 30
percent) so wouldn`t be surprised if these are increased with
the next forecast update. A few of these storms later today
could produce locally heavy rainfall, but the should be
scattered in nature, so the flooding risk is low for today. The
severe risk is even lower, as both shear and instability are
marginal.

TUESDAY...There was no change to the severe weather outlook
across the region, as a Marginal Risk remains in place. The
shortwave trough is strong, so expect a lot of forcing and
widespread convection. A quick look at the forecast soundings
show a fairly linear shear profile. There is some veering in the
0-1km layer. Forecast guidance suggests a large area of 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE. Given the strength of the forcing and linear
shear profile, expect storms to develop quickly with a lot of
interference. The 06Z HRRR supports this, but there is a small
window shortly after initiation where few cells have some
updraft helicity swaths. So although the overall severe weather
set up is low, the potential is there for a few quick spinups.
Meanwhile, the recent rains have saturated the soils, so any
training thunderstorms could lead to pockets of heavy rain.
Overall the system is fairly progressive, but there is a slight
risk for excessive rain across eastern MN and western WI.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Slightly cooler weather will follow
the rest of the week and into next weekend as west/northwest
winds develop. It will be breezy, with steady winds around 20
mph, and gusts near 30 mph for Wednesday through Friday, before
the winds gradually diminish into the weekend as high pressure
settles across the region. One change to the forecast was to
increase rain chances along and north of I-94 for Wednesday
afternoon. The cold air advection, with ample boundary layer
moisture should support widespread afternoon showers and a few
thunderstorms. Freezing levels are low, so could see some small
hail mixed in as well with the stronger updrafts. Other than
that, the potential for heavy rain or severe weather is very low
from Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms should impact all the TAF sites
overnight as a complex of storms slowly moves across the region.
Winds will be out of the southeast. There is a chance for MVFR
clouds to develop after the storms move through, but these
should clear out during the day on Monday with VFR conditions
returning and lasting into Monday night.

KMSP...
Showers and thunderstorms should move in shortly after 06Z and
last for a few hours before the back edge pushes through close
to sunrise. There lower confidence in MVFR clouds developing,
but did continue to advertise this in the TAFS. Look for VFR
conditions to return for the afternoon and last through Monday
night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR early, then MVFR/SHRA with -TSRA/IFR possible. Wind S bcmg W 10-20 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc SHRA. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G35 kts.&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB