741
FXUS63 KMQT 231835
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
235 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Other than a low chance (15-30%) of showers Tuesday into Tuesday
night in the eastern U.P., dry weather is expected this upcoming
week with a trend toward much above normal temps again late in the
week.

- Patchy frost is possible (~20%) for typical cold spots of
  interior western Upper Michigan Tuesday  morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Apart from some fair weather cumulus developing across the western
half of the UP, skies remain sunny with weak ridging in place over
the Great Lakes. Temperatures hover in the lower 60s so far, and
should be able to climb a little  higher into the mid and possibly
upper 60s across most of the UP this afternoon.

Tonight, our ridge breaks down as a couple features of interest move
towards the area. The first is a shortwave currently tracking into
the mid-Mississippi valley. This heads into the Lower Great Lakes
tonight, while another surface low currently moving into Manitoba
tracks through Ontario. None of these are expected to track close
enough to the UP to bring in any rain chances tonight, but a
resulting shift to southerly flow will help to touch off weak WAA.
Expect 850mb temperatures to climb to near 8C by early Tuesday
morning. This, in addition to increasing mid/upper level cloud cover
should help to keep temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than
this morning. Still, much of the interior UP should be able to drop
into the upper 30s to lower 40s, while some of the typically cooler
spots (throughout the interior-west and north-central UP) fall
further into the mid 30s. Will not rule out some patchy frost yet
again. Patchy fog will also be possible with light southerly winds
over the land tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the western U.S. and
a trough in the mid and lower Missouri River Valley and upper
Mississippi Valley into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. The ridging
moves into the Rockies and troughing into the upper Great Lakes 12z
Wed. This ridge moves into the northern plains 00z Thu and into the
upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. There will some some low chance pops late
Tue afternoon into Tue night for the eastern cwa with glancing blow
from system to the south and east of the area, otherwise it will be
dry.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb low over the
lower Mississippi Valley and a broad ridge across the Rockies into
the plains 12z Fri with a ridge over the upper Great Lakes. The
closed low moves to the mid Mississippi Valley with ridging still in
the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat through 12z Mon. Temperatures will
continue to be above normal for this forecast period. Looks dry and
NBM appears to generous with pops considering we are under a strong
ridge aloft with no sfc fronts in the area and also remains of
tropical system well to the south. Capped pops at 14 for days 5
through 7 and would not be surprised to see some clouds at best
during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions for the duration of the TAF period with ridging over
the region. Midlevel cloud cover fills in late tonight into Tuesday
morning as a shortwave trough moves into the Lower Midwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The wind will stay at or below 20 knots for the whole period which
is very unusual for this time of year. High pressure will remain in
control of the area and continue to bring benign weather.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...07