Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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439 FXUS63 KMQT 191957 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 357 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Light rain showers and a couple rumbles of thunder are possible over the east half the rest of this afternoon. Some showers and a couple rumbles of thunder are possible over the south central tonight. -Keeping an eye on flooding concerns near Harvey along the Chocolay River and over the west due to the high recent rainfall amounts. -Moderate to heavy rain likely through first half of weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Isolated to scattered light rain showers, with possibly a couple rumbles of thunder thrown in, look to continue over the eastern half of the U.P. this afternoon as the decaying cold front continues crawling eastwards. The precipitation looks to mostly conclude over our area by early this evening as weak high pressure ridging builds into Lake Superior. However, with a stationary front setting up over Wisconsin tonight, we could see some on-and-off rain showers and possibly a couple rumbles of thunder over the south central through tonight. Overall, temperatures today have been much cooler than what we saw yesterday, with many areas already having hit there high around 70 to the mid 70s today. Moving into tonight, low temperatures are expected to be cooler, mainly getting down into the 50s with some spots possibly getting into the upper 40s. We continue to keep an eye on flooding concerns along the Chocolay River near Harvey and also over the west where some places got rainfall in excess of 3 inches (some as much as 5 inches!). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Surface ridging will be centered right over the Upper Lakes on Thursday yielding a dry a dry day for most. Light north winds off Lake Superior will keep temperatures in the 60s near the Lake with pleasant low to mid 70s inland. A weak shortwave will lift northeast across the area during the afternoon in the southwesterly flow aloft. A few showers will be possible especially near the WI line during the afternoon, but drier air should suppress most of the activity. The next weather maker for the U.P. will start to take shape Thursday night as additional shortwave energy begins to eject eastward out of the Rockies. A warm front will begin lifting northward across the Upper Mississippi Valley late Thursday night into Friday with warm advection precipitation moving into the western U.P. by mid morning Friday and continuing on and off mainly across the southern half of the U.P. The moisture increase will be significant Friday night into Saturday with PWATs approaching 2 inches. As main upper trough moves out of the Plains later Friday surface low will deepen and lift northeastward along the boundary toward Upper Michigan by early Saturday. Saturday will likely be a washout for most with moderate to heavy rain. Given recent heavy rains across portions of the U.P. this week ponding of water will and increase in stream flows will be the primary threats. As the low continues to move ENE through the area Saturday night, the cold front will push any remaining precipitation east of the area. While some drying will occur on Sunday, one more shortwave dropping eastsoutheastward from the Canadian border could produce enough lift for a few additional showers on Sunday but it will definitely be the driest of the weekend days. Moving into early next week, expect ridging and and warming as high pressure moves from the Plains through the Midwest. Another quick moving front by Tuesday afternoon may bring the return of some showers and Thunderstorms then. With clouds and rain through the first half of the weekend, temperatures will be a little below normal before climbing back above normal early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1258 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Conditions look to improve to VFR across all of the TAF sites by the mid afternoon, with cigs continuing to improve as we move into the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the gusty westerly winds this afternoon look to veer to the northwest this afternoon and the north this evening as they generally weaken with time today. Expect fairly light winds tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Gusty west winds over the eastern Lake will diminish into the evening with a stretch of light winds expected from tonight into early Saturday with surface ridging over Lake Superior. A surface low lifting through the Upper Lakes on Saturday will lead to northeasterly winds up to 25 knots over the western Lake during the day. Northwesterly winds behind the departing low should stay below 20 knots on Sunday. Southwesterly winds will return early next week increasing to 20-25 knots ahead of another weak cold front by Tuesday afternoon. Moderate to heavy rain will be possible across the south half of the Lake from later Friday through Saturday which could lead to some dense fog development during that time. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006. Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TAP MARINE...MZ