838
FXUS66 KMTR 252328
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
428 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Chances for elevated thunderstorms continue across the Bay Area
through this evening with chances diminishing by evening. Cooler,
seasonal to below average temperatures return Wednesday and
persist through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Slight (10-15%) chance of thunderstorms producing dry lightning
continues over the Bay Area before chances diminish by the late
evening. Radar continues to show elevated cells moving over
Sonoma, Napa, and Marin Counties with the potential for isolated
thunderstorms continuing into the evening hours. For lightning
activity so far today, several strikes occurred in the vicinity of
the San Jose and Livermore airports this morning. Three airports
(San Francisco, Livermore, and San Jose) observed trace
precipitation overnight and again this morning, indicating some
precipitation is making it to the surface. However, precipitation
totals greater than a few hundredths of an inch are not
anticipated as most precipitation is expected to evaporate before
reaching the ground (creating a neat phenomenon known as virga).
Remember to stay weather aware and when thunder roars, go indoors!

Tuesday continues to be the warmest day this week with temperatures
cooling down beginning Wednesday. Tonight`s overnight low
temperatures, both inland and along the coast, will range from the
low to upper 50`s. Upper level troughing will move inland tonight
into tomorrow with temperatures cooling down to seasonal to slightly
below average. Wednesday`s inland high temperatures are expected to
be 3 to 7 degrees cooler than today`s with most areas seeing highs
in the upper 70`s to mid 80`s. Favored inland hot spots may see
temperatures reach the upper 80`s. Closer to the coast, cooler
temperatures prevail with highs largely in the upper 50`s to mid
60`s. As upper level troughing moves inland, the marine layer is
expected to deepen with increasing stratus chances along the
coastline and portions of the San Francisco Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 220 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Upper level troughing will persist through late week with seasonal
to below average temperatures similar to Wednesday (upper 70`s to
mid 80`s inland and upper 50`s to mid 60`s along the coast)
continuing through Saturday. However, by Sunday, guidance continues
to indicate a warming trend will develop as upper level ridging
again builds over the West Coast. While this forecast is several
days out and subject to revision, here is a preview of what the
warming trend currently looks like. By Sunday, inland temperatures
will gradually warm into the upper 80`s to low 90`s before reaching
into the low to mid 90`s on Monday and low to upper 90`s on Tuesday.
While outside of this forecast period, longer term guidance suggests
that these warmer temperatures will prevail through most of next
week. For those along the coast, temperatures will warm into the
60`s to low 70`s beginning Sunday through the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Satellite shows high-based convection clouds moving across the
region from the south. Therefore, there is a slight chance for dry
thunder and lightening. Conditions will remain VFR through the TAF
period for most terminals with the exception of Monterey Bay
terminal. IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected to return tonight with a
chance KSFO and KOAK may be impacted, but confidence is moderate.
Onshore moderate to breezy winds will diminish tonight to light and
variable before rebuilding to breezy Wednesday afternoon, with a
chance of gusty winds through gaps and passes.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. As winds diminish
tonight, chances for MVFR/IFR ceilings increase but confidence is
moderate as models show VFR can prevail through the TAF period.
Breezy onshore winds diminish tonight and return to strong and gusty
Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR currently. Ceilings lower to IFR
tonight with a chance of low visibility from fog. Clearing is
expected near 15-17Z where winds start to increase to breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 428 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

  Moderate to breezy northwesterly continue. Stronger
northwesterly breezes arrive into Wednesday morning creating
hazardous conditions for small crafts across all the waters.
Significant  wave heights will continue to abate below 10 feet
through the  period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, with
limited coverage. Given the elevated nature of any storms that
may develop, any rainfall amounts, if any, will be light with
some VIRGA possible and subsequent gusty winds. Any strikes that
do occur may cause a fire start in the fine fuels.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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