349
FXUS63 KOAX 210712
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
212 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continuing overnight convection will bring potential for
  severe weather this morning, primarily damaging winds and
  flash flooding.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms with all hazards
  possible will move through the area in the 10 AM to 2 PM
  timeframe today.

- There will be additional rain chances beginning Thursday night
  and lasting through this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Short Range (Today)

A deep upper level trough moving into the central Plains has spun up
a surface low currently sitting in western Kansas. Overnight
convection in the area forced by a leading shortwave continues to
weaken through the overnight hours. This has brought a shift from a
severe weather threat to a hydrologic threat with storm training
along a frontal boundary draped across east central Nebraska
bringing flash flooding potential to the area. Nearly 2 inches of
rainfall has been reported for the Omaha area overnight.

An MCS has developed over southwest Nebraska/northeast CO and will
quickly accelerate eastward overnight. The features is expected to
push through the area in the 5:30 to 7:30 am period. CAM guidance is
suggesting a strong segment of bowing winds pushing through the area
in this timeframe. The strongest winds will likely be north of
Interstate 80 with the HRRR suggesting gusts of 60-70 mph in
portions of northeast Nebraska.

A lull in convection is expected in the 8 am to 11 am timeframe with
a few lingering showers possible. By the mid-morning, the
aforementioned surface low is expected to deepen and track
northeast into eastern Nebraska. Guidance has continued to slow
the progression of this low with consensus gained on the feature
reaching northeast NE by noon. This has prompted to SPC to
expand the moderate risk (level 4 out of 5) for severe weather
westward to include our southwestern Iowa counties. An
associated cold front will drape south of the low with
placement over eastern Nebraska by late morning. The airmass
ahead of the cold front is expected to quickly recover from the
overnight convection. By late morning, MLCAPE values of
2500-2800 J/kg are expected in southeast NE and southwest IA.
Bulk shear values are expected to exceed 70 kts in this area as
a 500-mb jet streak pushes into the region. Hodographs remain
long with increasingly impressive low level features as your
progress eastward into Iowa.

Convection initiation is expected along the front in eastern
Nebraska during the 10 AM to noon timeframe. An initial
supercellular storm mode is expected before storms move northeast
and take on upscale growth. All hazards will be possible including
large hail, strong winds and tornadoes. Flash flood potential is
possible through much of Tuesday, especially for areas that received
increased rainfall overnight. Storms will be quick to exit the area
this afternoon with much of the threat shifting east by 3 to 4 PM.
Additional lingering rain showers may continue into the
early evening.

Long Range (Wednesday through Monday)

By Wednesday, the aforementioned low pressure system is expected to
depart towards the Great Lakes region. Dry conditions are expected
with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s. A shortwave trough
ejecting through the northern Plains will bring a chance for
rainfall Thursday night into Friday morning (PoPs 50-70%). Severe
weather potential is low with this event. An additional shortwave
feature moving across the Plains this weekend will bring additional
rainfall potential Saturday night through Sunday. PoPs remain low at
this time (20-40%). In this extended time frame, severe weather
potential looks to remain south of the area with this event.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Scattered showers and storms are present across the area and
will persist through the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities (with a possibility of IFR) will be possible in
areas with heavy showers. MVFR ceilings will be present at all
terminals through the overnight period. A secondary line of
showers and thunderstorms (with potential for a strong segment
of bowing winds) will go through the terminals in the 10-14Z
timeframe. Winds will remain northeasterly in northeast NE and
southeasterly in southeast NE tonight before shifting clockwise
to northwesterly through the day. Winds over 12 kts will be
possible in areas with strong thunderstorm outflow.

A lull in convection is expected in the 15-17Z timeframe before
another line of showers and thunderstorms moves through the
area. Confidence is low in these storms initiating far enough
west to reach the terminals, it will be monitored for future TAF
issuances. Any potentials storms will be in the 18-21Z
timeframe. VFR conditions will return in the afternoon with
strong northwesterly winds through the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ015-033-034-042>045-
     050>053-065>068-078.
IA...Flood Watch through this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood