173
FXUS63 KOAX 232314
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
  move through this evening into early Friday (80-90% chance).
  Damaging winds and localized flooding will be the primary
  threats, but large hail and tornadoes will be possible.

- A flood watch has been issued for tonight into Friday morning
  in areas that have recently received heavy rainfall. Even
  relatively small amounts of rain in those areas could cause
  issues.

- Minor flooding continues along portions of the Missouri
  River. With increasing chances for heavy rain tonight, area
  rivers and streams could rise to flooding levels again in the
  coming days.

- Additional storm chances through Memorial Day weekend,
  especially Saturday evening and Sunday. Severe weather could
  be possible at times, but confidence in exact timing and
  location is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Fairly quiet early this afternoon, though a bit breezy, with
southeast winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Temperatures as of 3
PM were in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Otherwise, the main story was a shortwave trough/cutoff low over WY
that will push east into the Dakotas this evening while a cold front
slides through the area, interacts with an unstable air mass, and
leads to a line of strong to severe storms. There could also be a
few showers and storms in southeast NE/southwest IA this evening (7-
10 PM) as moisture transport begins to ramp up and point into the
area, but the main line of storms doesn`t look to move into our
coverage area until 11 PM or later. While current SPC mesoscale
analysis suggests very little instability in our area, that will
change quickly as the aforementioned moisture transport/low level
jet ramp up, with guidance indicating MUCAPE values in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range across the area and similar ML/SBCAPE values not
lagging much farther south. Vertical shear profiles suggest storms
should stay organized, though the strongest deep layer shear looks
to lag behind the front and 0-3 km shear vectors aren`t exactly
perpendicular to the line and are just under 30 kts, suggesting the
line could have a tendency to gust out and weaken in some locations.
On the other hand, 0-1 km shear is quite strong with impressive low
level hodograph curvature suggesting an enhanced tornado potential
along bowing segments that are oriented more perpendicular with the
0-3 km shear vectors and can become surface-based. So think the
biggest threat with this line will be damaging winds and localized
flooding (more on that soon), but can`t rule out some short-lived
tornadoes and large hail.

Regarding the rain/flood potential, the aforementioned low level
moisture transport looks quite impressive and with precipitable
water values in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range and warm cloud depths
near 3500 m, expect some efficient rain-producing storms. In
addition, latest CAM guidance suggests the southern end of the line
of storms is trending toward being oriented more west to east,
indicating some potential for training thunderstorms. Unfortunately,
this could take place in locations where we recently received 3 to
7+ inches of rain where it wouldn`t take much to lead to further
flooding problems. Therefore, elected to issue a flood watch for
those areas that are most vulnerable to heavy rain, though much more
(maybe even all) of the area is expected to see at least some rain
overnight into early Friday.

Storms should exit to the east by 7-8 AM and give way to a fairly
sunny, but breezy day with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and
northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph. For the holiday weekend, we
should stay dry for a good chunk of Saturday, but shower and storm
chances return by the late afternoon/evening as a surface low tracks
east across KS and a warm front sneaks north into the forecast area.
There will be a threat for severe weather of all types in the
vicinity and south of the warm front, but questions still remain on
just how far north it makes it. As it stands, highest chances look
to remain south of Interstate 80, but definitely worth monitoring
the forecast, especially if you have outdoor plans.

Showers and a few storms could linger into Sunday, though there
could be some dry periods during the day as well. Guidance then
suggests we see some quick moving shortwave energy slide southeast
through the area sometime Sunday night/Monday bringing yet another
shot of some showers and storms. There remains quite a bit of spread
heading into the early/middle of next week, but there could be a
brief drier period sometime Monday-Wednesday as upper level ridging
approaches. However, overall long term consensus is that we could
stay fairly active with at least shower chances and highs mostly in
the 70s...very spring-like.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Southeast winds at 15 to 25 knots at TAF issuance. Thunderstorms
appear to be the main concern, impacting all TAF sites. KOFK
06-08z, and KOMA/KLNK 08-10z. Storms have the capability of wind
gusts to 45 knots, but could be locally higher. Will update
TAFs accordingly if winds in excess of 50 knots or any hail is
expected, which is a possibility at any of the TAF locations.
Winds eventually shift to the northwest behind the front by
12-15z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning
     for NEZ033-034-042>045-050>053.
IA...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning
     for IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...DeWald