Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 280423
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1123 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Another day of record or near-record high temperatures today, as
mid- afternoon temperatures sore into the mid- to upper 90s.  As
of 2 pm, both KOMA(94)and KOFK (93) had exceeded their previous
records and KLNK had met it`s record of 95. Cirrus shield
beginning to advect into the area from the west, so that should
keep temperatures from rising too much more this afternoon.

The overnight hours look quiet, though there is an slim chance of
convection currently developing across the western high plains to
eek into the western extremes of CWA during the pre-dawn hours.
With exception of HRRR, CAMS have backed off this scenario, but
enough of an isentropic signal to support, so will leave very low
slight chance PoPs.

Increasing low level moisture, combined with convective debris
should keep temperatures a category or two lower on Memorial Day;
however, still some 20 degrees above normal for late May. Aside
from very warm temperatures, there is a slight chance of high-
based convection due to focused isentropic ascent along the 310K
surface enhanced by convective temperatures being reached. For
now, kept PoP slight chance. Better chance of storms arrives
Monday night, as upper trough/vort max currently moving across
Great Basin, ejects out into the northern Plains. Some slight
timing differences appearing among the deterministic models as to
how far east convection will advect during the overnight hours, so
will keep PoP in chance category. Better probabilities on Tuesday
and into Wednesday. How long and how much precipitation on
Wednesday will depend on interaction between previously mentioned
upper system and remnants of Alberto. One thing that is more
certain is that max temperatures will fall back into the 80s in
most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Upper H5 ridge builds back into the region Thursday and Friday.
Medium range models showing the potential for overnight convection
as weak disturbance progresses through ridge axis Thursday night.
Ridge looks potent enough on Friday to inhibit any isolated storms
on Friday; however, upper flow begins to transition Friday night
into Saturday as upper wave flattens ridge. This may allow another
chance of storms during the weekend. After a reprieve earlier in
the week, temperatures will climb back into the 90s Thursday and
especially Friday. High temperatures records appear to be safe for
this next round of heat, with most locations showing records highs
100+.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions through the period. Scattered thundershowers could
develop in western Iowa Monday afternoon, but would not impact the
KOMA TAF site. Isolated thunderstorms could develop near KOFK late
in the TAF period toward 29/06z, but too far out to include at
this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

It has been another record setting day, with new high temperature
records shattered at all three of our primary climate sites.

                   OMAHA     LINCOLN    NORFOLK
                  ================================
New Records for
Sunday, May 27    101/2018   97/2018    97/2018
Previous Records   94/2012   95/1966    93/2006

This marks the 2nd day in a row that Omaha has hit 100 degrees. The
last time that happened was July 2012. And the last time Omaha hit
100 degrees 2 days in a row in May has only happened one other time,
from May 28-May 31, 1934, in the middle of the dust bowl. And that summer
went on to be the 3rd driest summer on record. That`s not saying that
the upcoming summer will be record breaking, but we are in an excessive
dry period, 4.08" below normal for rainfall since March 1, and 2.22"
below normal for rainfall since May 1, with May normally our wettest
month of the year.

The record for latest snowfall to earliest 100 degree temperature for
Omaha is back in 2013, when we had 1.2" of snow on May 2nd, and it hit
101 on May 14. That summer was the 20th driest on record.

Record temperatures for Monday seem out of reach, based on our current
forecast of highs in the lower to mid 90s.

  Monday, May 28   97/1895    98/1895   100/1974

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fortin
LONG TERM...Fortin
AVIATION...DeWald
CLIMATE...DeWald


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