961
FXUS63 KOAX 231703
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1203 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures through the work/school week with low
  chance (20-30%) of showers Tuesday; otherwise mostly dry
  conditions through Thursday.

- Complex weather pattern late in the week, as upper low
  interacts with tropical system, could affect longer range
  precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Today and Tonight:

A few light showers/sprinkles and cloud cover over southeast
Nebraska will continue to diminish this morning as a weak mid-level
shortwave trough axis moves east into Iowa this afternoon. Mostly
sunny skies and light southerly winds are expected for much of
the afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Rest of the week:

A weak upper level trough will dig south across the Northern Plains
and across the forecast area late tonight into early Tuesday
morning. This will allow a surface cold front to push through the
region. We will hold onto small pops along this boundary overnight
into Tuesday morning although moisture looks quite limited. With
daytime heating resulting in a bit of increasing instability across
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Tuesday afternoon, will
continue with a mention of thunder in our southeast.

Otherwise, a mostly dry forecast is expected while we remain
sandwiched between amplified ridging to our west and a large area of
low pressure to our southeast. Temperatures should remain seasonal
through the work week.

The extended periods remain somewhat uncertain as a large upper low
to our southeast begins to interact with a tropical system moving
north off the Gulf. There are many uncertainties but the overall
look off the extended periods is that our area looks to remain dry
more so than wet. We cannot rule out some shower activity on the
backside of this system as we move into next weekend but forecaster
confidence is quite low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Winds will be the primary concern over the next 24 hours as the
weak southerly winds will become westerly overnight and
eventually breezy and out of the northwest on Tuesday. A cold
front brings the wind change from northwest to southeast and may
bring some isolated showers to each TAF site, but confidence is
low with chances hanging around 25%. If showers do find their
way to the aerodrome, they`ll be light with little lightning or
thunder.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Nicolaisen