137
FXUS63 KOAX 202026
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
326 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At least small storm chances nearly every day through the
  middle of next week. Severe weather will be possible at
  times. The highest chances are currently this evening and
  Friday evening in portions of northeast Nebraska and west-
  central Iowa.

- The most likely dry days will be Sunday and Monday, but still
  a 10-20 percent chance of spotty storms.

- Gradually warming temperatures through the weekend into early
  next week. Heat indices approaching 100 to 110 on Monday and
  possibly Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Showers and storms continued near and north of the NE/SD border
within warm air advection and on the nose of some low level
moisture transport. To the south, a warm front was pushing
northward through the area and may help lead to some additional
spotty shower and storm development this afternoon before it
sets up near the NE/SD border tonight. In addition, we`ll have
to watch storms currently forming over WY and western NE as they
push east and approach northeast NE toward midnight. However,
latest guidance suggests it will weaken as it gets here with
storms largely remaining to our north along the front and nose
of stronger moisture transport. That said, do want to point out
that these storms will be capable of repeated rounds of heavy
rain leading to flooding with precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches and it wouldn`t take much of a shift south
for that to end up in Knox/Cedar counties.

The front will remain pretty stationary through Friday with
persistent moisture transport pointing into it and leading to
continued showers and storms through the day and especially the
evening as said moisture transport strengthens further. Should
be plenty of instability for some stronger storms and while
shear remains on the low to moderate side, there could be just
enough for a few organized severe storms. At this time, once
again the highest threat looks to stay just north of the NE/SD
border, but again it wouldn`t take much of a shift for portions
of northeast NE to see a threat.

For Saturday, the front looks to finally push southeast as a
cold front and should lead to yet another round of showers and
storms. Still some differences on timing of the front, with
latest guidance suggesting the highest storm chances will be
just to our south and east, but still could see a few storms
develop over far southeast NE and far southwest IA by early to
mid afternoon. If the front slows at all, more of the area would
see a threat for storms, some potentially severe with a juicy
airmass remaining in place and at least a little deep layer
shear for storm organization. Once again, these could produce
heavy rain with precipitable water values on either side of 2
inches, but the good news from a flooding standpoint is that
this front looks like it should be pretty progressive in getting
through.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and lead
to some mostly, but not completely, dry time for Sunday into
Monday. A surface boundary does look like it could edge eastward
into the both Sunday evening and Monday evening. Attention then
turns to a stronger front pushing through Tuesday which could
lead to a little bit more widespread storm coverage, though
timing will play a large role in how that pans out and how much
of our area could see impacts. Beyond that, expect continued
shower and storm chances each day with plenty of daytime heating
and occasional weak boundaries and weak shortwaves passing
through.

Last, but certainly not least, we will be warming back up into
the upper 80s and 90s starting Friday and lasting through at
least Tuesday. Humidity will also be building with dewpoints in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Monday looks like it`ll be the warmest
day with widespread heat index values over 100 and some places
reaching the 105 to 110 range. Tuesday could be similar in
portions of southeast NE and southwest IA depending on when the
aforementioned cold front slides through that day. So overall
we`re looking at a continued warm and somewhat active pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to gradually improve to VFR
this afternoon with only passing mid clouds by late this evening
overnight. Ongoing showers and storms are expected to remain
north of the TAF sites with any additional development most
likely doing the same, but can`t completely rule out a stray
shower or storm hitting a site this afternoon/early this
evening. Otherwise, winds will be southeasterly to southerly at
or below 10 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA