229
FXUS64 KOHX 131123
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
623 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Strong Four Corners ridge will start to push east and that is
going to bring an extended period of hot temperatures to Middle
TN. Highs today will push into the upper 80s to lower 90s. We will
see some instability build in over eastern areas, this will bring
some afternoon cloud cover but no precip expected. Dew points will
also start to creep up reaching the mid 60s. With the higher
humidity overnight lows Thursday night will be more mild in the
mid 60s.

On Friday an upper level trough will push into the Northeast and
that will push a cold front to our north. The front will weaken as
it pushes towards Middle TN and CAPE profiles are capped in our
area. This will lead to little to no impact with the front but we
will see some cloud cover. Despite the cloud cover highs will
continue their upward trend with them pushing into the low to mid
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Upper level ridge will continue to build east over the weekend and
we will see hot temperatures in the 90s. The APEX of the ridge
will be over us on Sunday and that will be the peak of the heat
over the next 5 days with highs well into the 90s and possibly to
100 in some locations. The NBM continues to show a 10-50% chance
for highs to break the 100 mark on Sunday. Overnight lows Sunday
night will remain mild only falling into the 70s.

A short wave trough will pass to our northwest on Monday and that
will bring some "slight" cooling for Monday and Tuesday but it
will still be hot and humid with highs in the 90s. The upper level
ridge will then continue to amplify over the eastern US and we
will see highs push back into the mid to upper 90s mid to late
week and will remain hot into next weekend. Overnight lows will
also remain mild only falling into the 70s. Given the extended
period of hot daytime highs, mild overnight lows, and humid
conditions we will see moderate to highs heat risk Sunday and
throughout the week.

The forecast is expected to remain dry through the weekend but we
could see some popup afternoon thunderstorms next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs with light and
variable winds. With the dry airmass over the the region, not
expecting any fog tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  68  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
Clarksville    88  64  92  67 /   0  10  20   0
Crossville     84  63  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
Columbia       91  65  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     86  65  88  67 /   0   0  10   0
Jamestown      86  64  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
Lawrenceburg   90  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   92  66  94  68 /   0   0  10   0
Waverly        88  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Cravens