697
FXUS64 KOHX 171659
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1159 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Strong upper level ridge is building over the eastern US. A few
weak short waves are spinning around the ridge and this will give
us the chance for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
ridge is a bit further west today and that will keep the threat
mainly along and west of I-65. Poor lapse rates and low shear will
keep any thunderstorms from becoming organized but can`t rule
out isolated wind gusts to 40 mph as storms collapse on
themselves. Heavy rain will be the main concern with any
convection with PWATs greater than 1.70". Some areas could get a
quick inch of rain under any thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity
will diminish quickly as the sunsets. It will be hot again today
but with mid to high level clouds it should be a little cooler
than yesterday, still looking at highs in the low to mid 90s. Dew
points are very uncomfortable in the low to mid 70s and once you
factor in the heat index it will feel similar to yesterday.

High to mid level clouds stick around tonight and that will keep
things warm overnight with lows only in the low to mid 70s.
Another short wave will spin around the ridge early tomorrow and
may bring a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to far
northern areas in the morning. Afternoon highs will once again be
in the 90s with dew points in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

We are going to see quiet weather for the week as a strong ridge
builds over the eastern US. This will continue to bring hot
weather with highs staying in the 90s. Dew points will stay in the
mid 60s to around 70. The ridge will start to push west some as
we head into the later part of the week into next weekend. This
will push highs into the mid to upper 90s and we could see a few
100s over the weekend. An upper level trough will push into the
Great Lakes Sunday into early next week. This will push a front
into the region and will bring shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Overall we are going to see VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible after 18z mainly to the
west of I-65. IFR/LIFR will be possible in any thunderstorms due
to heavy rain and low vis. The thunderstorm threat will diminish
by 01z. Southerly winds up to 10 knots this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  75  93  74 /  20  20  10   0
Clarksville    91  73  91  72 /  40  30  20   0
Crossville     88  68  86  66 /  20  10  10   0
Columbia       92  72  92  71 /  30  20  10   0
Cookeville     90  72  88  70 /  10  10  20   0
Jamestown      90  70  87  68 /  20  10  20   0
Lawrenceburg   91  72  90  71 /  20  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   94  73  92  72 /  20  10  10   0
Waverly        90  72  90  71 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Mueller