Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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061 FXUS64 KOHX 220659 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 159 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A few clouds are roaming around out there at forecast time and while things are quiet now, there is at least some indication from the last few runs of the HRRR that we may not stay that way all night. I`m going to add in a 10 PoP for the potential of some showers before sunrise around the Metro area and up to the KY state line. If they happen, they likely won`t be of much consequence, but I wanted to throw in a tiny chance. Outside of that, some patchy fog will be possible in the typical spots, like we`ve seen the last few mornings. The heat continues today, however there`s a little wrench in the plans. I do not think this is going to be widespread, but with the latest run of the HREF, on top of multiple extended runs of the HRRR, I`m going to include a 20 PoP for the eastern half of the mid- state this afternoon. The biggest question will be how far east the capping inversion will stretch. The western 1/3 of Middle TN should remain dry, but we`ll have to see if we can get at least similar conditions to yesterday. Will they just be pinhead showers or can we get some convection going? In either case, I think a small measurable PoP is warranted. If we do see some convection, typical summertime concerns will be possible: heavy rain, lots of lightning and gusty winds. If you have outdoor plans, just remain weather aware. As far as the heat goes, expect low triple digit heat index values west of the Cumberland Plateau again this afternoon (and really, most of this forecast). Our next best chance of rain moves into the area tomorrow. As we`ve been talking about the last several days, a frontal boundary is expected make its way into the mid-state tomorrow afternoon. With the heat and humidity leading to plenty of instability already in place, the addition of a source of lift should spark convection from the afternoon, lasting into the overnight hours, as well as Monday morning (especially south of I-40). I don`t think the overnight hours will cause any issues, but during the heat of the day, we`ll run the risk of some damaging gusty winds and heavy rainfall. In fact, with creeping towards 1.9 inches, heavy rainfall is expected with any of these storms, even into the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 For those of you who haven`t seen much rain lately, if you don`t get it Sunday, hang tight. Latest extended guidance it looking better for giving the garden hoses a break. At least some rain chances will stick around through Monday night, but by Tuesday afternoon/evening better storm chances arrive. Helped along by unseasonable synoptic support, scattered to numerous storms will be possible right through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Forecast soundings look a little better through this time frame than they did last night, with 6+ deg/Km lapse rates and plenty of instability in the area. Along with PWs increasing to over 2 inches, gusty winds and heavy rains will both be possible again. If you`re over the heat, sorry. It`s summer. However, we should fall back to seasonal temperatures with Wednesday`s rain and frontal boundary passage at least for a day or two next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A broad area of high pressure covers Middle Tennessee at the surface and aloft. Thus, we will continue with VFR TAFs and light/calm winds for at least the next 24 hrs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 97 75 95 75 / 20 20 40 40 Clarksville 94 73 92 72 / 10 10 30 20 Crossville 88 67 88 68 / 20 20 50 60 Columbia 95 71 96 73 / 20 20 40 40 Cookeville 90 70 90 70 / 20 20 50 50 Jamestown 89 70 88 68 / 20 20 50 60 Lawrenceburg 94 71 95 73 / 20 20 30 40 Murfreesboro 96 72 96 73 / 20 20 40 50 Waverly 94 72 93 72 / 10 10 30 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Rose