521
FXUS64 KOHX 230655
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
155 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Patchy dense fog has developed across the plateau early this
morning thanks to some rainfall that fell on Sunday afternoon.
This fog should burn off shortly after sunrise giving way to one
more day (we promise just one more day) of temperatures
approaching that 90F degree mark. As that frontal boundary gets
closer and closer to Middle Tennessee, a weak upper level impulse
will help provide a focus for convection development this
afternoon and evening. The northern half of the area is at risk
for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with the main
threat being damaging winds.

More fog will develop again tonight especially across locations
that get lucky enough and receive rain. Tuesday is pretty much a
carbon copy of today with storms sinking a little further south
and High Temps a few degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The main theme in the long term will be rain chances, possibly
heavy rain at times, and cooler temperatures. All eyes will shift
to the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical system develops rapidly with
aim to make landfall likely somewhere across the northern Gulf
Coast to western Florida coastline. With a fairly strong closed
upper low across Arkansas at the same time, the remnants of this
tropical system will likely hangout over the region for several
days increasing the chances for much needed rain.

Yes, this sounds similar to the forecast we provided with the
remnants of Francine two weeks ago with underwhelming results for
a good 3/4ths of the forecast area. But this time, there doesn`t
appear to be a strong gradient of dry air setting up directly over
the area. In addition, ensemble solutions definitely keep the
area wet for a good chunk of the forecast period. Think the
heaviest rainfall days look like Wednesday through Friday with
total amounts approaching several inches. These rainfall forecasts
will be refined over the coming days, but it looks like the area
will likely see some good rainfall that will at least put a dent
in the ongoing drought situation. By Monday, the upper level low
finally kicks east helping push the moisture east of the area
bringing drier weather and keeping the cooler temperatures around
for awhile.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

IFR ceilings/visibilities are expected through sunrise at KCSV
and KSRB from fog in the area. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Monday, likely starting by 15Z.
Greatest shower and storm coverage is expected between 18Z and
00Z. Lightning, heavy rain, and reduced visibility will accompany
stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  71  86  67 /  60  40  60  50
Clarksville    86  69  82  63 /  60  70  80  30
Crossville     86  63  82  61 /  60  20  70  70
Columbia       91  68  86  65 /  50  20  70  60
Cookeville     86  66  83  64 /  70  20  70  70
Jamestown      84  65  82  63 /  70  30  80  70
Lawrenceburg   90  68  87  65 /  50  20  60  60
Murfreesboro   91  69  88  66 /  60  30  60  60
Waverly        89  68  81  63 /  60  60  80  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hurley
LONG TERM....Hurley
AVIATION.....Clements