061
FXUS64 KOHX 251722
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The cold front that moved through the area yesterday with numerous
showers and strong thunderstorms was stalling out along the
Cumberland Plateau today. The boundary will help keep a good
chance for showers and a few storms over our Plateau counties
through the rest of the day. Some scattered showers will build
back west across I-65 through the afternoon and evening as a
cutoff upper level low sets up just to our west.

The showers and widespread clouds will keep temperatures lower
today than we have experienced in quite a while, mainly in the
70s. Along with this, any storms should behave with no severe wx
expected today. For tonight, shower coverage will decrease and a
few cloud breaks will allow patchy fog to form.

On Thursday, shower and scattered thunderstorm chances will
gradually increase and spread from east to west. This will occur
as the cutoff low continues spinning to our west and the
beginning of deep tropical moisture with Hurricane Helene begins
to surge up into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Confidence is high that soaking rainfall associated with Hurricane
Helene will fall across Middle Tennessee Thursday night through
the weekend. The center of Helene is expected to make landfall
along the Florida Panhandle as a major hurricane Thursday evening
with lots of heavy rainfall and gusty winds extending up toward
Tennessee. Deep tropical moisture will be drawn toward the cutoff
low to our west, setting us up for potentially several inches of
rainfall.

The heaviest rainfall expected from Helene will occur Thursday
night through Friday with 2 to 3 inches of rain likely. Heavier
amounts of 4 to 5 inches are possible during this time, especially
for the Cumberland Plateau. As with all tropical systems, it is
uncertain exactly where the heaviest rain bands will set up. Lower
rainfall amounts are possible as well if the weakening system
moves more quickly and the main band of heavy rainfall shifts
across the area more quickly. We are issuing any flood headlines
at this time. There is still uncertainty in amounts, but even with
a few inches of rain, flood impacts should be generally localized
and fairly brief in duration. We will keep continue to assess the
situation with model updates and we may need a flood watch for
parts of the area Thursday night and/or Friday. Rivers are low
across the area, so we do not expect river flooding. Winds will be
gusty, especially late Thursday night through Friday, and
especially for areas east of I-65. Right now, we think gusts of 30
to 40 mph will be common, but that will depend on the strength
and exact track of Helene remants. Otherwise, severe storm threats
look very low.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will linger through the
weekend before the low finally moves out of our area. Saturday
looks like a cloudy day with pretty high coverage of showers
while Sunday looks like some breaks in the clouds and more hit and
miss coverage. The trend shows drying weather with seasonable
temperatures by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

There are some patches of low clouds that will affect BNA/MQY thru
14Z. Also, an area of mainly light rain is moving northeastward
out of West Tennessee that may affect CKV during the same time
frame. Drier air has worked its way into Middle Tennessee, so our
rain chances and expected rainfall amounts are considerably lower
today. The best rain chances will affect the Cumberland Plateau.
Ceilings and vsby`s will be somewhat variable today at CSV/SRB,
but look for low stratus and perhaps some fog to develop this
evening and especially overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      79  63  79  67 /  40  30  70 100
Clarksville    78  58  80  65 /  20  10  60 100
Crossville     71  58  69  60 /  80  60  90 100
Columbia       79  59  78  63 /  40  20  60 100
Cookeville     73  60  72  62 /  60  50  80 100
Jamestown      71  58  70  62 /  70  60  80 100
Lawrenceburg   77  58  76  63 /  50  30  70 100
Murfreesboro   78  61  78  65 /  50  30  80 100
Waverly        78  58  78  62 /  20  10  50 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose