Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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666 FXUS64 KOHX 200120 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 820 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 815 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Our quiet weather is going to continue. We should start to see the cloud cover thin out as we head into the overnight, some high clouds will linger through. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to around 70. Overall fog is unlikely but maybe some patchy spots by daybreak in the normal fog prone areas. The strong ridge over the northeast will start to build south and west. This will bring the return of the heat with low 90s tomorrow and continued warming into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Building high pressure influences surface and aloft will provide dry conditions through Thursday afternoon. Current regional temperature trends generally in line with forecasted high values for this afternoon ranging from upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region as scattered to broken upper level cloudiness persist across mid state region. Lows tonight will continue seasonably mild trend of late ranging upper 60s to lower 70s, mid 60s Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Thursday, as upper level cloudiness diminishes, will rise into low to mid 90s, upper 80s to around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 High pressure influences surface and aloft will continue to be dominant weather player across our area as apex of upper level ridging influences continue to shift east to west across much of eastern CONUS through Saturday. Expecting lows both Thursday and Friday nights to range mid 60s Cumberland Plateau Region up to mid 70s elsewhere. Highs will continue to climb to potentially around century mark for Nashville Metro Area, with at least mid to upper 90s at other locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region, lower 90s across it, by Saturday afternoon. Upper level ridging influences subside with more of a quasi zonal northwesterly flow upper level pattern becoming established across our area as Saturday night into Sunday progresses, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms back to our area by Sunday afternoon per expected embedded shortwave passage in flow. High temperatures on Sunday could be quite similar to those experienced on Saturday across our area as rainfall chances will be isolated at best, mainly across northern and eastern portions. Look for ridging influences aloft to build in from west as first part of next work week progresses, but keeping enough moisture around our neighborhood, i.e. "dirty" upper level ridge pattern, to keep chances of isolated, to even scattered, showers and thunderstorms in forecast as a surface front potentially approaches mid state region from northwest as Sunday into Sunday night progresses, but does not make it through our area. Hot conditions will continue though. Highs in mid to upper 90s west of Cumberland Plateau Region, upper 80s to lower 90s across it, will be possible Monday through Wednesday. Lows each night will continue to range mid 60s Cumberland Plateau Region up to mid 70s elsewhere. From Saturday through next Wednesday, there will be at least some areas each daily afternoon west of Cumberland Plateau Region that will experience afternoon heat index values up to around 105 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Strong high pressure over the region will keep tafs mainly VFR with light winds. Brief vsby impacts from radiational fog will occur at SRB/CSV overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 94 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 69 92 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 64 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 67 94 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 67 89 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 66 89 68 91 / 0 0 10 10 Lawrenceburg 66 92 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 67 94 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 69 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....13