Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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673 FXUS64 KOHX 211141 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 641 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 After a hot day on Friday temperatures are mild for mid September with 60s and even a couple stations still in the 70s at this hour. Some patchy fog will be possible near dawn again this morning. The ridge is in charge this weekend with another hot and dry day in store today. Highs will be very similar to yesterday with many of us topping out in the lower to mid 90s. Sunday will be another hot one but maybe a couple degrees cooler as the ridge begins to flatten out. With the ridging influences being slightly less pronounced and increasing humidity, an isolated storm near the TN/KY border or along the Tennessee River cannot be completely ruled out. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Rain chances will increase Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave ejects out of the central plains towards the Midwest. A couple scattered storms will be possible on Monday but the better rain chances will be Tuesday as a weak cold front traverses our area. QPF with this front looks underwhelming given our ongoing drought. Generally speaking, QPF will be 0.25" or less. Temperatures will fall back closer to normal for late September behind the front with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows falling into the 50s and 60s. Behind the early week shortwave, models diverge regarding the upper level flow with some digging a deeper trough through the area midweek (mainly GEFS members) while more ENS members want to cut off the energy well west of our area. The first solution would bring some more rain chances to the area while the second solution would see a return of dry conditions. For now, slight chance PoPs will be carried until some more agreement is seen. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 For BNA...a few showers are trying to approach from the northwest, but they are weakening and unlikely to reach the terminal. Otherwise, anticipate some high cirrus throughout the day with light west/southwest winds. For all other TAF sites, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Little to no fog has formed so the window of potential fog impacts as closed. Light west/southwest winds are forecast during the day today, dropping off once again this evening. A shower/storm approached KCKV earlier, but those have since weakened and diminished with no additional activity currently moving toward the site. All other sites should remain precipitation free. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 94 71 93 72 / 20 10 10 10 Clarksville 92 70 91 69 / 20 10 20 20 Crossville 88 63 88 63 / 10 0 10 10 Columbia 92 69 93 68 / 20 10 10 10 Cookeville 89 66 89 67 / 10 10 10 10 Jamestown 87 65 87 66 / 10 0 20 10 Lawrenceburg 92 68 92 67 / 10 10 10 10 Murfreesboro 94 69 93 69 / 10 10 10 10 Waverly 90 69 91 69 / 20 10 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Husted