Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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447 FXUS64 KOHX 220538 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1238 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 849 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Clouds will clear out tonight and we will see quiet conditions. Temperatures are warm currently in the 80s which is about 2-5 degrees warmer than yesterday this time. Temperatures will remain warm tonight falling into the low to mid 70s. A little bit of patchy fog will be possible in the normal fog areas towards daybreak but most areas won`t see anything. Another hot one is in store for tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Another hot and humid summer day across the midstate today with current temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s. Anticipate highs to reach the upper 80s to around 90 on the Plateau this afternoon with mid to upper 90s elsewhere. HRRR has been consistently showing a few popup showers or storms during the afternoon, so I added a very slight chance pop for that potential. Tomorrow looks even hotter as the upper ridge remains in place and 850mb temps heat up a tad, so expect highs to be a degree or two above today`s readings. It`s possible Nashville could squeak up to the 100 degree mark during the afternoon, but right now I`m forecasting it to stay just below. A few areas could also reach our Heat Advisory criteria of 105+ heat index values, but with most areas staying below that I`m not planning on an advisory at this time. Also not anticipating any popups tomorrow due to the strength of the upper ridge, but as always in our summertime regime one or two could occur. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 On Sunday, a weak frontal boundary will sink down from the north, bringing some widely scattered showers and storms by late afternoon and especially Sunday evening/night. Models accordingly cool down highs for Sunday, but with the late day frontal arrival they are likely overdoing things and temps will likely be similar to Saturday. Forecast soundings aren`t impressive with only weak shear and CAPE for late Sunday, but a strong storm or two could occur mainly with gusty winds. Drier airmass moves in behind the front on Monday into Tuesday, but 850mb temps actually warm up into the 21-24C range - so it highs will actually go up across Middle Tennessee with a better likelihood for a few areas to hit the 100 degree mark. Low level moisture begins returning from the west on Tuesday so precip chances will be on the rise Wednesday into Thursday while temperatures decline thanks to clouds/precip. Guidance shows a more substantial cold front moving through the region by late week, with a return to dry conditions and at least somewhat of a "cooldown" into the mid 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A broad area of high pressure covers Middle Tennessee at the surface and aloft. Thus, we will continue with VFR TAFs and light/calm winds for at least the next 24 hrs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 97 75 95 75 / 0 0 40 40 Clarksville 94 73 92 72 / 0 10 20 20 Crossville 88 67 88 68 / 10 10 60 60 Columbia 95 71 96 73 / 0 0 40 40 Cookeville 90 70 90 70 / 10 10 50 50 Jamestown 89 70 88 68 / 10 10 60 60 Lawrenceburg 94 71 95 73 / 0 0 40 40 Murfreesboro 96 72 96 73 / 0 0 40 50 Waverly 94 72 93 72 / 0 10 30 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....Rose