Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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877 FXUS64 KOHX 161622 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1122 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the center of a strong high pressure system to our east. This eastward shift has allowed surface winds to become southerly, and temperatures are already toasty late this morning with current readings in the upper-80s to low-90s. These temperatures will continue to warm this afternoon, eventually making it into the mid and upper-90s. While a couple locations will get close, chances of hitting 100 remain low (10-30 percent) although it won`t feel like it with heat index values around 100 to 104 degrees. With an increase in moisture today, chances for afternoon thunderstorms will also trend up. These pop-up thunderstorms will be disorganized with severe thunderstorms not expected. However, as is usually the case with summertime convection, any thunderstorm may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. A very similar pattern sets up on Monday as the high pressure remains centered to our east over the Carolinas. Temperatures will again warm up into the mid-90s, and hit-and-miss thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon before diminishing again after sunset. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Much of the upcoming week looks to be quiet with mainly the heat to talk about. The strong high pressure becomes centered over the mid-Atlantic states, but it will be strong enough to extinguish our own precipitation chances for several days. Tuesday through at least Thursday look rain-free with daily highs consistently staying in the 90s. For our next chance of rain, we`ll have to look ahead to next weekend as models are showing the possibility of a weak disturbance off the eastern coast of Florida that may track west-northwest into the southeastern US as the aforementioned high moves back towards the south. Confidence is low on if this develops and exact timing of any rain, but it`s enough for low rain chances (20-40 percent) Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 653 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The majority of the period should be VFR with light winds and mostly clear skies. This afternoon some scattered storms may develop, which could produce vicinity storms at terminals east of CKV. Any storms should die down by 02Z and leave conditions quiet overnight tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 98 74 94 75 / 20 20 30 20 Clarksville 95 73 91 73 / 10 10 30 20 Crossville 89 68 88 68 / 40 20 30 10 Columbia 96 72 93 73 / 20 20 30 20 Cookeville 91 71 90 72 / 40 20 30 10 Jamestown 90 69 90 70 / 30 20 30 10 Lawrenceburg 95 71 92 72 / 20 20 30 20 Murfreesboro 96 73 95 73 / 30 30 30 20 Waverly 96 73 91 73 / 20 10 40 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Whitehead