844
FXUS61 KOKX 020220
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1020 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast remains overnight
and gradually drifts offshore on Sunday. A weakening
disturbance moves through late Sunday night and for the first
half of Monday. High pressure remains over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday before sliding offshore Wednesday evening. A series of
frontal systems then approach the area by the end of the week
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
No significant changes from the previous update.

Minor update this cycle for winds given that shallow sea
breezes across Long Island are now pushing north into LI Sound
via KOKX and NYSM profiler location at Stony Brook.
Otherwise,the forecast is essentially on track.

High pressure settles over the area tonight. A dry air mass for
this time of year with dew point readings primarily in the
lower half of the 50s, so a rather comfortable night. Outlying
areas will likely not get as cool as the previous night with
some air mass modification starting to take place. The winds
will be light to calm with the high essentially directly over
the region. With deep layer ridging in place look for
essentially clear skies, although some cirrus may sneak into far
western locations later in the overnight. Lows should get down
into the lower and middle 50s in the coolest locations in the
non urban areas, with mainly lower 60s across the more metro
areas.

Another pleasant day across the area on Sunday. The mid and upper
level ridge axis starts to shift overhead, and with this there
should be more in the way of high level moisture starting to
intrude, especially for western areas later in the day. Other than
some cirrus, look for a good deal of sunshine. The synoptic pressure
gradient will be quite weak, and thus earlier sea breeze development
is expected. With the high getting further offshore the synoptic
flow will have more of a southerly component, and with daytime
heating the southerly flow will increase and thus a hybrid sea
breeze should be able to penetrate further north and west for the
afternoon hours. It will still be a fairly comfortable warm day with
dew point reading remaining primarily in the 50s, with perhaps the
immediate south shore of Long Island having dew points approach 60
later in the afternoon with more of a wind directly off the ocean.
Temperatures will be very similar to what they were the previous
day, with perhaps far eastern and southern locations being a couple
of degrees cooler, especially later in the afternoon with more of a
sea breeze and wind off the water influence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening mid level short wave starts to draw closer during the
beginning of the period. As the shortwave progresses east and over
the Appalachians it will get dampened out and lose amplitude. Look
for clouds to increase Sunday night from west to east as the mid and
upper ridge axis gets offshore. As the shortwave gets suppressed it
will have difficulty conserving vorticity and thus it undergoes some
shearing. The BUFKIT sounding essentially show the higher RH at 10-
15 kft and below, so there should not be a lot of depth the
moisture. Therefore any rain shower activity that breaks out is
expected to be rather light and intermittent late Sunday night into
Monday morning. It does appear that all of Sunday evening will be
dry across the entire area, with perhaps the first of the shower
activity getting into far western areas towards and just after
midnight. The shower activity may briefly get more coverage into the
Monday morning commute but instability does appear to be lacking
down low and in the mid levels. Thus, at this time QPF amounts look
to be under a quarter inch, and perhaps even below a tenth of an
inch.

Towards Monday afternoon the global guidance consensus does show the
middle portion of the column drying out. Thus look for some
clearing, or at least breaks in the clouds Monday afternoon and
evening. A light onshore flow however may keep stratus and low clouds
in play, especially further to the southeast. Therefore uncertainty
in the cloud coverage / sky forecast remains for later Monday into
Monday evening. Temperatures should be relatively close to normal,
perhaps a few degrees above normal for the most part for Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Seasonable high temperatures for the period.

*Dry conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday followed by unsettled
weather for week`s end and into the weekend.

Global ensembles are in generally good agreement with the synoptic
pattern through late week. Mid and upper ridging centered over the
northeast to begin the period flattens to a more zonal flow by
Thursday and Friday. This is the result of a sprawling upper low
taking shape over the central Canadian Maritimes, of Pacific origin,
slowly moving east Thursday into Friday and settling over eastern
Canada by the weekend. This will return us to a cooler and wetter
pattern toward the end of the long term period.

At the surface, high pressure centered over New England on Tuesday
shifts offshore by Wednesday. Interior sections will be warmest for
these two days under dry conditions with east/southeast flow keeping
coastal areas a few degrees cooler. Highs in the upper 70s to near
80, with low 70s for the coast.

By Thursday, a surface low north of Great Lakes, associated with the
aforementioned upper low heads slowly east. An associated warm front
approaches the area on Thursday. The front looks to remain near or
just to the north of the area into Friday as the parent low
occludes. Shower chances ramp up on Thursday morning and moreso by
Thursday afternoon with the front in the vicinity. Have maintained
thunder in the forecast as model soundings do depict some elevated
instability/CAPE Thursday afternoon. By Friday, the cold front
pushes through the area as the surface low heads east. Depending on
timing, another round of thunder may also be possible with any
precipitation associated with its passage.

After a brief respite possibly late Friday into early Saturday from
precipitation, additional showers are possible Saturday into Sunday
as the upper low continues to move very slowly east.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains along the mid Atlantic coast into
Sunday, and then slowly moves east late Sunday and Sunday
night.

VFR.

Winds generally light W/SW through the overnight with winds
light and variable at the outlying terminals. A light W/SW wind
will reestablish tomorrow mid-morning at or less than 10 kt.
During the afternoon the flow become more southerly with sea
breeze enhancement.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: VFR. Low chance of MVFR in showers late and
mainly at the NYC metro terminals.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. MVFR or lower possible late day into the night
with showers.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain showers, slight chance
of thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the period. Seas on
the ocean will be 2 ft or less through Wednesday, and perhaps
getting closer to 3 ft towards Thursday. The ocean waters may
begin to approach SCA conditions with 4-5 ft waves late Thursday
into early Friday under enhanced southerly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels increase getting closer to mid week. Stevens
guidance shows minor flood benchmarks being approached as early
as Monday night. Thus, trends will need to be monitored in
subsequent cycles with minor coastal flooding will become more
likely for the south shore bays of Nassau, Queens, and Brooklyn,
along with Western LI Sound for CT, and Westchester towards
Tuesday.

Water temperatures remain around 60 degrees around the region.
This poses the threat for hypothermia to anyone immersed in the
water. Small boats, canoes, and kayaks should plan accordingly
if recreating this and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

There is a low rip current risk through the weekend due to low
seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DBR
NEAR TERM...JE/DBR/MET
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...