Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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227 FXUS61 KOKX 070338 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1138 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front continues to push east across the area overnight. A broad area of low pressure then meanders nearby over southeast Canada Friday and into early next week. High pressure follow for the middle of next week. A broad area of low pressure meanders nearby over southeast Canada Friday and into early next week. High pressure should follow for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... The cold front will continue to slowly move through the forecast area for the overnight hours. Still enough CAPE with the forcing for an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly east of the city. Some of the 00z CAMs show showers popping up after 06z. Over eastern zones, the front may not be completely through, but CAPE will be diminished. Elsewhere, not so sure if there`s any forcing would cause showers with very limited CAPE. Will therefore not make any changes after 06z and keep with a dry forecast for this period. With light to calm winds and surface moisture from earlier rainfall, might need to add patchy fog farther west from the current forecast. Lows around 70 in the city and 60s for most other spots. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper low moves into the eastern Great Lakes and into Upstate New York Friday. Scattered showers are possible Friday afternoon under west/northwest flow, but primarily for northern interior locations closer to the periphery of the flow of the upper-low. The latest CAMs and HREF agree with this outcome. Thunderstorms look unlikely due to a more stable airmass. Did not include thunder chances in the forecast, but an isolated rumble could still be possible. Westerly flow should keep temperatures in the 80s for most, but with dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s, it will feel less humid than Thursday. A well-mixed boundary layer may also allow for some westerly wind gusts near 20mph. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There are no significant changes to the forecast thinking this weekend through much of next week. *Key Points* *Broad low pressure will meander over Northern New England and southeast Canada this weekend through early next week. *Dry conditions on Saturday will be followed by a chance of showers late Saturday night into Sunday with a cold front passage. *A few weak fronts or surface troughs may pass early next week, but conditions should remain mainly dry. *Temperatures likely end up a few degrees above normal this weekend, trend near normal early next week, then edge above normal middle of the week. Anomalous upper low will slowly move across Northern New England Saturday and then meander over southeast Canada Sunday. The upper low should shift towards the Maritimes early next week. The flow aloft over the region will be nearly zonal on Saturday and this will prevent any development of afternoon/evening showers. A stronger vortmax will swing around the upper low towards the area Saturday night into early Sunday. This will help send a cold front across the region and bring a chance for showers. Instability looks limited given the timing and have left mention of thunder out of the forecast for now. The upper trough axis associated with the upper low then lingers over the region Monday. The guidance indicates the trough axis could shift offshore Tuesday, but it may also remain nearby. While moisture and lift are limited, an isolated shower is possible Monday afternoon and evening and then again on Tuesday. The trough should be replaced with a middle level ridge Wednesday, but the modeling does not agree on if it will remain overhead or push offshore quickly with the approach of the next shortwave. Have followed the NBM which yields a slight chance PoP Wednesday and Thursday given the uncertainty. A faster shortwave could introduce a higher chance for shower Wednesday. A slower trough would lead to dry conditions for the mid week period. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front slowly pushes through the terminals tonight. Weak high pressure remains for Friday with a weak cold front or trough moving through late in the day to early evening. Mainly VFR, however sub-VFR for KGON tonight. VFR continues for Friday. Light WNW-NW winds overnight. Winds back WSW-SW late Friday morning/early afternoon, then shift back WNW behind a weak cold front/trough late day/early evening. Gusts up to around 20kt during the afternoon and evening. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday night: VFR. Saturday-Sunday. VFR, MVFR possible with a chance of showers late Saturday night through Sunday. Monday-Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of showers Tuesday. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... SCA continues for the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet through tonight. Marginal seas around 5 ft prevail during this time. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels Friday into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Have continued the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory for coastal Fairfield and Westchester for this evening`s high tide cycle. Elevated astronomical high tides associated with the new moon will continue to support water levels touching or just surpassing minor flood benchmarks in these areas. Water levels may just touch or slightly exceed minor benchmarks for the same locations plus southern Nassau County with Friday evenings high tide cycle. Guidance appears to have come down with the latest data. Prefer to hold off on issuing any statements or advisories until this evenings high tide passes and we can assess the latest data tonight. A high rip current risk continues early this evening at Suffolk County beaches with moderate elsewhere. There is also a moderate rip current risk Friday and Saturday at all Atlantic beaches due to 3-4 ft seas and lingering southerly swell. This is supported by the latest RCHMOS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for NYZ071. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BR/DS NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...BR LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JC MARINE...BR/DS HYDROLOGY...BR/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...