588
FXUS61 KOKX 221803
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
203 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure east of the region will continue to slowly depart
today. Meanwhile, high pressure noses in from the northeast and
remains in control through at least Tuesday. A frontal system then
approaches on Wednesday and moves across on Thursday. High
pressure slowly returns Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure continues to build in from the north today as the
low pressure system off to the east continues to move away from
the region. Expect dry conditions today along with a northeast
flow. The northeast winds will keep temperatures in the lower
and middle 70s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Expect a dry and cool pattern to continue through the short term.
High temperatures on Monday will only be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s while overnight lows fall into the 50s. A few upper
40s can not be ruled out overnight, especially the usually
cooler locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry into daytime Tuesday.

* Possible showers Tue night through Thu night with an approaching
  frontal system.

* Uncertainty as to whether shower chances may continue into Fri or
  Sat.

* Temperatures near to slightly below normal from Mon-Thu, with
  moderation to slightly above normal Friday and Saturday.

Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the NBM.

High pressure slowly starts to lift north on Tuesday. This will
allow a frontal boundary from the west to approach. PoPs start to
increase west of NYC Tuesday night, also to the NYC metro area and
western Long Island/CT daytime Wednesday, and throughout the
entire CWA Wednesday night/Thursday.

Model disagreement continues late in the week into next weekend with
the timing of the front exiting the region. Some forecast guidance
has the frontal system moving east as high pressure builds in from
the west, while others have the front moving slower with a weak wave
developing along it. Will continue to keep slight chance PoP for Fri
and dry conditions for Sat, but these are uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure eventually builds southward into the area as low
pressure offshore slowly moves farther out to sea.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with
exception of KGON, where the TAF period will feature mainly MVFR
stratus both this afternoon as well as late tonight into Monday.

There is a chance for widespread MVFR stratus late tonight into
early Monday. Have all terminals except for KSWF with at least
a tempo group for a part of the time, with terminals east of NYC
expecting to have a longer period of MVFR.

Winds will be NE near 5-10 kts through much of the TAF period. Gusts
near 20-25 kt east of NYC terminals forecast until early evening
with KGON having gusts last longer into tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional wind gust to 15-20 kt possible this afternoon and
this evening.

Timing of MVFR could be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Chance of showers with MVFR possible. E wind gusts 15-20
kt day into eve.

Thursday: Chance of showers, mainly early, with MVFR possible.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
As low pressure continues to slowly drift away from the region, high
pressure will build in from the north. With the SCA gusts slowly
starting to diminish, seas will remain on all the ocean waters with
seas remaining well above 5ft. Seas peak today through Monday at 6
to 8 ft. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended into Monday
night, but will likely need to be extended further over the next
several forecast cycles. An extended period of hazardous ocean seas
and rough conditions at the inlets should remain through at least
Wednesday. Seas may start to diminish below 5 ft Wed night into Thu,
but could come back up again later on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Tuesday.

Basin avg QPF from Wed into Thu night should range from 3/4 to 1
inch. Only minor nuisance impacts expected at most, mainly on
Thu.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding will continue into Monday, but impacts and areal
coverage will be on the downswing as astronomical tides continue to
lower. The offshore low responsible for the easterly swell that has
helped pile water into the area will slowly work southeast through
early next week. Once more cycle of widespread coastal flooding
occurs late this morning into the afternoon. There continues to be
potential for localized moderate flooding, especially for the south
shore back bays of Nassau. No changes were made to headlines for
this tide cycle. However, water levels may fall short across SE CT,
especially coastal New London.

The high tide cycle tonight into early Monday should largely fall
short of minor benchmarks, but the most vulnerable spots in the
south shore back bays of Nassau could briefly touch minor. Have
decided to hold off on a statement. Water levels came in slightly
lower than expected with the late Saturday night/early Sunday
morning high tide, and there is a good chance it ends up just being
Freeport that touches, with little to no impacts.

A coastal flood advisory is now in effect for high tide Monday
afternoon for the south shore back bays, Lower NY Harbor, and
adjacent locations along Western LI Sound in S. Fairfield and S.
Westchester. These are the areas that have the highest chance of
exceeding minor benchmarks. Water levels should remain below
moderate in S. Nassau. For most other locations, any coastal
flooding during the afternoon high tide Monday looks localized. Held
off on any statements for these locations for now, but may be needed
in subsequent forecasts.

The high rip current risk continues through Monday evening due to a
prolonged period of easterly swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Monday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ074-075-178-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday afternoon for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ006-106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC/DS/JT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...