462
FXUS61 KOKX 150323
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1123 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area overnight, followed by
high pressure building in from the northwest for the weekend.
The high will be centered over the area Sunday morning and
moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control
through late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms that preceded a prefrontal trough
have become stratified with some rain lingering across eastern
LI and SE CT. The actual cold front will move across the area
overnight, possibly with passing shower. Otherwise, expect
mainly dry conditions for the rest of the night with winds
becoming northerly behind the cold front. Lows will close to
normal, mainly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in for the weekend with dry and less muggy
conditions as dewpoints fall to around 50. Both days look to feature
mostly sunny conditions, with some cumulus development on Saturday
and perhaps some cirrus streaming by on Sunday. Highs mostly around
80 on Saturday, with slightly cooler conditions on Sunday for
coastal areas as winds shift onshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The key point for the long term is that there is increasing
confidence in a prolonged heat wave in the middle to late next week
with heat indices approaching or exceeding 100F at times Tuesday
through Friday.

Ongoing deep-layered ridging on Monday continues into at least
Wednesday. Models show slight flattening of the ridge aloft with
maybe a weak surface trough setting up for both Thursday and Friday.
Will continue to advertise dry weather through at least Thursday
given the subsidence/capping working against whatever CAPE may
manage to build up to. Slight chance/chance PoPs for Friday as per
NBM. Still too early to have any confidence in any over-the-ridge
convection spilling over into the forecast area for any of the days
in the long term.

Based on global deterministic and ensemble guidance, best guess for
850mb temps for Monday are 16-17C, approaching 20C on Tuesday, then
20-21C Wednesday through Friday. After high temperatures of mostly
85-90 on Monday, highs mostly in the middle and upper 90s are
expected away from the coast Tuesday through Friday. Although it`s
too soon to have high confidence in detailed heat indices during
this period, at least advisory criteria would likely be met for a
good portion of the forecast area starting on Tuesday given the
current forecast. So far, models aren`t indicating a very dry
boundary layer each afternoon or west to NW surface winds, so these
two factors would limit daytime mixing out of surface dewpoints.

Given the potential duration of the heat, it`ll be important to take
precautions to protect one`s health, particularly those without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat-sensitive
industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by the extent
of this heat as well.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main band of showers and thunderstorms has worked east of
the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. The area will continue
to weaken and diminish in coverage while working across the
eastern terminals the next couple of hours. A band of light
showers will follow, but should be brief. Actual cold front
works from west to east across the area from around 04Z at KSWF
to 09Z at KGON.

Mainly a VFR forecast outside of any heavier showers. Winds will
go light and variable. There is small chance that some patchy
fog and a brief IFR/LIFR ceiling develops before northerly
winds increase behind the cold front. There is also a chance
for a few gusts 15-20kt behind the cold front, but that is more
likely after 12Z Saturday. Gusts diminish in the later afternoon
Saturday as high pressure works in from the Great Lakes.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A brief shower is possible the first half of the night. Northerly
wind gusts could develop sooner than forecast behind the cold
front overnight, but should not be frequent until late morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will pass through the waters overnight with a
northerly flow developing at 10-15kt. A few higher gusts will
be possible, but expecting below SCA conditions for Saturday.

For the remainder of the weekend through Monday, sub-advisory
conditions prevail. There may be a chance of a few S-SW gusts to
25kt and seas approaching 5 ft each afternoon/early evening for
Mon-Wed on the ocean west of Fire Island inlet. SCAs probably
won`t be needed for each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Conditions begin to improve by Saturday, with a moderate risk
forecast as winds shift offshore. With high pressure moving
across the area on Sunday, the risk will become low.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...