334
FXUS61 KOKX 271513
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build across through Friday. A warm
front will lift north on Saturday, followed by a cold front on
Sunday. High pressure will then return on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry as high pressure builds east. Seeing some sct-bkn Cu
development across NYC and much of the interior mainly NW of NYC
that should last through the afternoon. Should also see
development along the sea breeze across Long Island this
afternoon.

High temps this afternoon will be in the 80s today. Lows tonight
fall to the mid 50s to mid 60s under clear skies, with northerly
flow 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region through much of Friday,
before starting to shift east to the New England coast late
Friday into Friday night. This will result in abundant
sunshine with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80, and
dewpoints in the 40s. Temperatures Friday night will once again
fall to the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will pass off the New England Coast Friday night,
allowing a warm front to lift through on Saturday. An
unsettled but very warm period will set up for Saturday night
and Sunday as a prefrontal trough and cold front move through,
bringing showers/tstms. The heat index may approach or surpass
95, mainly in NE NJ and perhaps also in NYC and along the
north shore of Long Island, with temps approaching 90 and
dewpoints in the lower 70s, but it is possible that limited
daytime heating and/or better vertical mixing could lead to
cooler temps and/or lower dewpoints so this remains uncertain,
and at any rate would last for only one day.

With the exception of Sunday, and possibly next Wednesday ahead
of another cold front when temps will again be on the rise,
temps should be close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds slowly eastward today and tonight, and
moves overhead around Friday morning.

Stratus has now moved offshore with the exiting cold front.
Scattered cumulus is developing across the region from the
northwest. Otherwise, VFR through the forecast period.

Winds WNW around 10 kt this morning, increase and gusts to
around 18-20 kt. Winds become N this evening and diminish to 5
to 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

There may be an early afternoon sea breeze at KJFK.


OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the afternoon, becoming likely at night with MVFR.

Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms likely, MVFR likely, IFR possible.

Monday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
There is the potential for SCA cond mainly on the ocean from
Sat night into Sunday as SW flow increases, with gusts up to 25
kt and significant wave heights above 5 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns today through the beginning of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues at the ocean beaches today.
The rip current risk should lower to moderate on Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BG
AVIATION...BR/MET
MARINE...BG