688
FXUS61 KOKX 222352
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build in from the northeast tonight and
will remain in control through at least Tuesday. A frontal system
then approaches on Wednesday and moves across on Thursday. High
pressure slowly returns Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Temps were bumped up a bit this evening based on latest obs.
This is likely due some of the clouds and not reflective of the
current forecast lows.

Offshore low pressure is still slowly departing as high
pressure noses in from the northeast. Aloft, heights rise as a
shortwave ridge builds in. The ridge axis will pass overhead
late tonight.

The orientation of the surface features will allow for the
persistent NE flow to continue, with the pressure gradient weakening
very gradually.

For lows tonight, went with the warmer NBM across the coast, LI, NYC
and northeast NJ as winds here will likely be a bit stronger.
Blended in some MOS guidance and NBM10th percentile to get cooler
temps up across the interior where winds will be lighter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through at least Tuesday.

The aforementioned upper level ridge axis will pass east early
Monday and a weak shortwave trough looks to swing through later on
Monday. Some of the guidance is hinting at some QPF Monday
evening for far wester locations, but went dry for now given
the dry NE flow that will be out ahead of any showers
approaching the area. Thinking if anything does reach the area
it may only be sprinkles and not measurable. Upper level ridging
builds back in for Monday night and Tuesday.

High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday look to be a few degrees
below normal for late September, upper 60s to low 70s. Lows Monday
night will be pretty similar to tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry into Tue night.

* Chance of showers Wed into Thu with a passing frontal system.

* Greater likelihood of dry weather from Fri into the weekend.

Sfc high pressure nosing down from Atlantic Canada and ridging aloft
on Tue will both slowly give way to a frontal system from the
VFR.west during mid week. Chance PoP enters the forecast from
NYC west daytime Wed, overspreading the entire fcst area Wed
night into Thu morning.

By Thu, a complex pattern will have taken shape over North America,
with an omega block developing as upper ridging gets pinched off
over the upper Great Lakes region, one closed low moves across
Eastern Canada into the western Atlantic, and another closed low
remains nearly stationary over the Plains and the Mississippi
Valley. The low moving across Canada should send a back door front
down through on Fri, with sfc ridging once again nosing down from
ern Canada from that point on into the weekend.

Temps on Wed will be fairly close to normal, then above normal temps
expected from Thu into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through Monday.

VFR lowering to MVFR cigs late tonight and lingering through
the morning push before improving back to MVFR by noontime.

NE winds around 10kt. Some coastal terminals will however
likely veer E-ESE Monday afternoon. Can`t rule out occasional
gusts 15-20kt for the coastal terminals.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance that MVFR is only TEMPO or does not occur at all, and
instead remains VFR all the way through Monday evening. Should
MVFR occur, chance that start and end times are off by a couple
of hours - especially Monday morning when it may linger longer
than anticipated.

Occasional gusts 15-20kt possible during Monday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: MVFR likely after midnight.

Tuesday: MVFR likely in the morning then VFR in the afternoon.
Occasional NE-E gusts 15-20kt.

Wednesday: Chance of showers with MVFR possible. E wind gusts 15-20
kt day into eve.

Thursday: Chance of showers, mainly early, with MVFR possible.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated long period swells from slow departing offshore low
pressure will continue for several days. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect on the ocean waters and has been extended through
Tuesday. This will likely continue to be extended over the next
several forecast cycles. Seas peak tonight through Monday around 6
to 8 feet and then slowly lower into the middle of the week.

An extended period of hazardous 5+ foot seas should continue into at
least Wednesday night. Seas may either subside below 5 ft by
Thursday, or seas may at least be confined closer to 20 nm offshore
and beyond.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend. Basin avg QPF
from Wed into Thu night should range mostly from 1/4 to 1/2 inch,
with localized amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch possible in any heavier
showers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding will continue into Monday, but impacts and areal
coverage will be on the downswing as astronomical tides continue to
lower. The offshore low responsible for the easterly swell that has
helped pile water into the area will work slowly southeast
through early next week. While astronomical high tides will
steadily lower over the next few days, easterly swells from the
low will continue to keep waters levels 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 feet
above normal. That being said, most locations need 2 to 3 ft of
surge to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks for the nighttime
high tide cycles, and 1 to 2 1/2 feet during the afternoon high
tide cycles. Based on these trends, after Monday afternoon, any
flooding should be localized through Tuesday and primarily across
the south shore back bays of western LI.

As for the surge guidance, Steven`s continues to be running
high in the back bays. Plan to still take an average of the
ETSS, ESTOFs, and Steven`s with some adjustments based on recent
performance. However, Steven`s is much slower in taking water
levels down. In some instances, Steven`s is about 1 to 1 1/2
feet higher. From past experience, the back bays can be slow to
drain with a persistent swell. So will have to watch the back
bays closely to see if the the minor flooding may hold into
Tuesday. Do not see any issues beyond that time.

For tonight, just have a coastal flood statement up for the S
Nassau and SW Suffolk. Lindenhurst tends to hold onto high
waters levels in a prolonged period of easterly swells and is
the main reason the statement is up for SW Suffolk.

For Monday`s high tide, advisories are in effect for Lower NY
Harbor, S Queens, and S Nassau, and portions of the coastline
adjacent to western LI Sound. To the east of these locations,
coastal flood statements are in effect for waters levels approaching
or just exceeding minor coastal flood benchmarks.

The high risk of rip currents continues Monday and Tuesday with
offshore low pressure still bringing long period E/SE swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Monday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ074-075-178-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday afternoon for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...JT/DW
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW