104
FXUS61 KOKX 071430
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak low pressure systems head through New England today
through Sunday as broad high pressure slowly builds from the
southwest. High pressure then follows for the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front continues to slowly move eastward, with drier air
advecting into the area in its wake. 12Z KOKX sounding indicates
strong subsidence inversion at roughly 550 mb or 15 kft.
Although a weak trough will rotate through triggering afternoon
showers mainly to the north and west of the city, the inversion
will likely hinder any shower activity from developing deeply
enough to produce lightning. Not expecting much in the way of
precipitation with any shower or storm, up to perhaps a few
tenths of an inch. Any shower activity that does occur will wane
with the loss of daytime heating.

Highs today will be similar to yesterday, in the mid 80s but will
feel a bit less humid, with dewpoints in the 50s.  A well-mixed
afternoon boundary layer, as advertised by BUFKIT soundings, may
also allow for some westerly wind gusts near 20mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper low remains over New England for the period slowly moving
toward the Canadian maritimes.  The mid level flow begins to flatten
on Saturday, which should keep any precipitation away from the area.
Dry conditions in store for the day, with temperatures a few degrees
cooler under weak westerly surface flow.

By Sunday, the more zonal mid/upper flow and a shortwave aloft will
allow for a weak low pressure system and cold front to pass through
the area. This will bring another chance for precipitation early on
Sunday. Model soundings do not indicate much in the way of shear or
instability so have left thunder mention out of the forecast. Skies
may clear by later in the day, with temperatures similar to, or a
few degrees warmer than, Saturday, depending on cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes to the forecast for next week.  Stuck fairly
close to the NBM.

*Key Points*

*A few weak fronts or surface troughs may pass early next week, but
conditions should remain mainly dry.

*Temperatures likely end up a few degrees above normal this weekend,
trend near normal early next week, then edge above normal middle of
the week.

The upper trough axis associated with an upper low then lingers over
the region Monday. The guidance indicates the trough axis could
shift offshore Tuesday, but it may also remain nearby. While
moisture and lift are limited, an isolated shower is possible Monday
afternoon and evening and then again on Tuesday.

The trough moves east and gets replaced by more of a zonal flow in
the mid levels, however the 00z GFS is showing another shortwave
approaching. Will stick fairly close to the NBM with just slight
chance POPs Tuesday through Thursday. However, if the GFS were right
with this faster, more progressive shortwave, POPs will have to be
increased on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front, moving through southeastern Connecticut into
eastern Long Island at 14Z, will push east of the area by
midday. Weak high pressure then remains over the terminals
through tonight, with a weak surface trough developing this
afternoon.

VFR.

Winds generally light and variable will become light westerly
late morning, with sea breezes developing. With the trough
developing winds become westerly inland, with the potential for
gusts 16-19kt, however, gusts may be more occasional. Winds
fall to 10kt or less overnight with some outlying terminals
becoming light and variable.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts may develops earlier than forecast. The sea breeze
is not expected to reach KLGA with winds remaining westerly.


OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday-Sunday. VFR, MVFR possible with a chance of showers
late Saturday night through Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of showers Tuesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through
early next week. Low pressure may impact the waters mid to late
next week. If this occurs, seas may increase to SCA levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood statements remain in effect for this evening`s
high tide cycle. These are for southern Nassau and the western
LI Sound, as high astronomical tides and a southerly wind
component this afternoon may lead to some isolated minor
benchmarks being reached. Steven`s median guidance was near or
just over observed values for last night`s high tide for points
in these areas, and so weighted this more heavily in the
forecast. Should newer guidance increase values, advisories may
be needed especially across the western LI Sound. Some question
for Saturday`s afternoon high tide cycle as well, as some
locations may again just touch minor benchmarks.

A moderate rip current risk today through the weekend at all
Atlantic facing beaches due to 3-4 ft seas and lingering
southerly swell. This is supported by the latest RCMOS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MD/DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR/MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...