537
FXUS61 KOKX 250626
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
226 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure pushes off the northern New England coast with
high pressure building in from the west overnight. The high
shifts south of the area Tuesday followed by a warm front
Tuesday night. A cold front approaches the region on Wednesday,
moving through into Thursday morning. High pressure then returns
from the Great lakes Thursday into Friday, before sliding
offshore this weekend as a frontal system approaches from the
west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies were clearing from the west as high pressure builds in and
low pressure along the Maine coast and over Nova Scotia tracks
east, and an upper level trough axis shifts to the east of the
area. Temperatures in the metropolitan area were slow to fall,
remaining in the lower 70s.

W-WNW gusts diminish overnight, but may remain gusty near the
coast for much of the night. The pressure gradient will relax
further early Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in from
the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Shortwave ridging builds over the northeast on Tuesday with the
core of the surface high settling over the southeast. This will
allow the flow to become W-SW through the day. Most of the area
will see highs in the middle to upper 80s, but the usual warmer
NE NJ and NYC metro will observe highs around 90 degrees. Dew
points will remain in the 50s with potential for readings to mix
into the low 50s in the usual warmer spots. While actual air
temperatures may touch the low 90s in the NYC metro, the low
humidity will make it feel a few degrees lower in the upper 80s.

The ridge flattens as it moves offshore Tuesday evening. The
next shortwave will begin amplifying over the Lakes Tuesday
night as it begins to approach. A warm front should begin
lifting towards the area, but there is no appreciable support
aloft and have left the forecast dry through day break
Wednesday. Nighttime temperatures will be milder with lows in
the upper 60s and low 70s with middle 70s in the NYC metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front
  late Wednesday could become strong to severe and produce
  locally heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and hail.

* Heat indices may approach 100 degrees in the NYC metro and
  northeast NJ. Cooler, drier conditions return Thursday and Friday.

No significant changes in the long term with this update. Global
guidance continues to remain in fair agreement and the National
Blend of Models was followed closely.

An amplifying northern stream upper trough moves through the
Great Lakes and northeast Wednesday through Thursday with a
surface low tracking across southeastern Canada. Deep southwest
flow ahead of the system`s cold front will bring a warm and
humid air mass into the region Wednesday. Precipitable water
values approach 2 inches and strong upper lift with CAPE over
1000 J/kg in the afternoon should allow convective development
by late Wednesday into Wednesday night. SPC currently has a
slight risk outlined for portions of the lower Hudson Valley,
with the rest of the region in marginal. The greatest threat
from any stronger thunderstorm would likely be damaging wind
gusts, but large hail and locally heavy rainfall leading to
minor flooding is also a threat into Wednesday night.

In addition to the convective threat, temperatures ahead of the
front on Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 90s across much
of the region away from marine influence. Coupled with the
increasing moisture, heat indices may approach 100 in the
hottest areas, and this may necessitate a heat advisory if these
values hold, particularly in NE NJ and parts of the NYC metro.
Will continue to monitor trends, but this would be short-lived,
as high pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring a
return to a more tolerable air mass as dew points drop into the
50s.

Another frontal system approaches Saturday with a warm front
moving north, with increased humidity, likely bringing a return
of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west through tonight and
remains through Tuesday, pushing south of the area Tuesday
night.

VFR.

Gusty NW winds gradually diminish into the overnight, with
gusts ending around 07Z, though occasional gusts of 20 to 25 kt
are possible until 09Z. Winds overnight will be around 10 kt for
the city terminals and 5 to 10 kt for all other terminals. The
winds will then shift to the west towards midday Tuesday and
start to shift a bit more to the SW at most terminals late in
the day. Gusts are possible during the late morning and
afternoon hours, but most likely at KJFK, KISP, and KGON.

Sea breezes development is expected at KJFK, KISP, KBDR, and
KGON. There is uncertainty whether the sea breeze makes it to
KLGA, and thus have kept the TEMPO group to reflect this
uncertainty.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind gusts ending tonight may be an hour or so too
soon.

Timing of winds backing may be off by an hour or two on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: VFR with mainly SW winds.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the late afternoon, and likely at night, with MVFR or lower
possible. SW wind 15-20 kt G20-25 kt near the coast.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, MVFR or lower possible early in the
morning in shower and thunderstorms.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gusts on the ocean waters were a few knots higher than forecast,
and adjusted upward for a few hours.

Wind gusts have diminished to below 25 kt on the non ocean
waters, and have allowed the advisories to expire. There may be
occasional gusts to around 25 kt on the eastern Long Island
Sound, and the Long Island eastern bays through 08Z as the
pressure gradient remains across this area.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the ocean waters,
with gusts and seas subsiding closer to dawn.

Conditions will then remain below SCA levels through Tuesday
night with high pressure in control.

Gusty southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front
Wednesday will likely result in SCA conditions on the ocean
waters, and possible on the south shore bays, Long Island
Sound, and eastern Long Island bays as well. Ocean seas also
build to 5 to 7 ft during this time. Winds begin to subside as
the cold front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday, but
ocean sea remain elevated into Thursday near 5 ft. Winds and
seas then remain below advisory levels on all the forecast
waters Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through Tuesday night.

Showers and thunderstorms develop late Wednesday afternoon and
evening ahead of an approaching cold front and could produce locally
heavy downpours that lead to minor flooding, particularly in urban
and poor drainage areas. The risk of flash flooding appears
localized at this time, but cannot be entirely ruled out given a
moist environment.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is in place for all local Atlantic
facing beaches on Tuesday with low surf and offshore winds.
Increasing southwest winds and seas will result in a high risk
of rip current development on Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DR/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...