355
FXUS61 KOKX 270812
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
412 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes offshore as weak high pressure builds in today.
A complex frontal system then approaches from the southwest by
tonight. A stationary front will remain just south of the area as
high pressure builds in from the north on Saturday and lingers
through Monday. Low pressure passes to the south Tuesday into
Wednesday, followed by a frontal passage late Wednesday into next
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered showers are developing in the southern half of the CWA as
low level frontogenetic forcing pushes south with the cold frontal
passage. Showers may continue into the early morning hours before
gradually dissipating into the mid-morning and early afternoon
hours. Weak high pressure will begin to build into the area today as
a complex frontal system approaches from the southwest into the
afternoon and evening. Much of the day should be dry but an isolated
shower can`t be ruled out for southern areas into the afternoon.

As the frontal system approaches from the southwest later today, an
area of deformation on the far northern edge of the frontal system
may result in the development of light showers into the evening. The
showers likely don`t make much northward progression and the region
of forcing stalls over the southwestern portions of the area
tonight. This may allow for additional shower activity into the
overnight hours and early Saturday morning.

Highs today will be seasonable, generally in the low to middle 70s.
Lows tonight will be in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure begins to build into the area from the north into
Saturday and through the weekend. At the same time, a stationary
boundary on the northeastern portion of the cut-off low over the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys remains over the southwestern
portion of the CWA. Additional scattered shower activity may persist
into Saturday and early Sunday. Northeastern portions of the area
may not see any shower activity at all the entire weekend. The
pressure gradient tightens a bit over the area this weekend allowing
for a persistent easterly flow to once again develop Saturday into
Sunday. This will both moderate high temperatures and keep low level
moisture in place, even as high pressure builds in. Areas of morning
fog are possible both Saturday and Sunday.

High pressure builds in a little more firmly on Sunday, pushing the
showers further to the south and allowing for a generally drier day,
despite continued low level moisture and generally overcast to
mostly cloudy skies persisting. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The overall forecast thinking has not changed much in the long term
and continued to stay close to the consensus forecast using the
latest NBM.

The upper low to our west will slowly weaken and slide east towards
the Middle Atlantic coast early next week with the second low moving
further offshore. The guidance is still differing in the speed and
handling of the upper low to the west, but the overall impact to the
region will be minimal. Despite the differences, there should be
weak surface low development just off the Middle Atlantic sometime
Monday night into Tuesday. The low then slides south and east of the
area through Wednesday. The 12z guidance is starting to come into
better agreement with the low far enough from the coast to limit how
much precip could make into the area. NBM deterministic PoPs are
still in chance category and this seems reasonable given the
uncertainty this far out with the evolution of the upper levels. The
other feature will be continued high pressure ridging down across
the northeast Saturday night through at least Tuesday. The high
should begin to weaken on Wednesday in response to a progressive
northern stream trough approaching the from the west. An associated
front will move across sometime late Wednesday into Thursday, likely
weakening as it moves towards the coast.

Sky conditions should remain mostly cloudy for much of the period.
The atmosphere should dry out considerably once the front passes mid-
late week. Temperatures look to remain close to normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front has dropped south of the terminals with some
lingering post-frontal showers. Conditions dry out today with
high pressure building in from the north.

Based on improvement behind the cold front to the north, have
opted to improve conditions quicker this morning. However, still
expect a period of IFR/LIFR as the front drops across the NYC
and LI terminals. This may be more occasional than frequent.
Improvement to MVFR 2 to 4 hours behind the front and then VFR
developing in the 09Z-15Z timeframe, quickest as KGON and KSWF
where drier air filters in on a northerly flow.

Chance of MVFR returning tonight, mainly at the NYC terminals
as a warm front approaches from the south. There is a low chance
of showers.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Confidence in cig forecast is low. Potential for some terminals
to not lower to IFR.

Timing of improvement to VFR may vary by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday PM: Chance of MVFR, mainly as the NYC terminals.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers with the best chance being
across the NYC terminals.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR in showers.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected for all waters through at least
tonight. A tightening pressure gradient on Saturday will allow for
gusts to approach 25kt on the ocean with wave heights building to
near 5 feet. SCA conditions will be possible as early as Saturday
afternoon and linger through Sunday afternoon. Sub-SCA are then
expected on all waters through Monday night. SCA conditions possible
again on Tuesday as low pressure passes to the south of the
area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk today as swells subside a bit
with weaker winds. The risk may start out moderate Saturday before
becoming high in the afternoon as seas and swells build along with a
stronger easterly flow.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MW
HYDROLOGY...MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...