902
FXUS61 KOKX 152053
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
453 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough over the area this afternoon will
dissipate tonight as high pressure builds from the northwest.
The high will move across Sunday morning, then remain in place
off the Northeast coast through Wednesday and shifts south to
off the Mid Atlantic coast into next weekend as disturbances
pass to the north Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As an upper level trough to the east pulls away, a weak trailing
mid level vort max in its wake and weak sfc trough reflection
were helping produce sct-bkn Cu across the NYC metro area and
most of NJ. These clouds are already thinning out and should
dissipate into early this evening, with a mostly clear night.
This plus some CAA as high pressure builds in from the NW plus
diminishing winds will lead to good radiational cooling and
mostly below normal low temps, ranging from the upper 40s in the
interior valleys/Long Island Pine Barrens, to the 50s most
elsewhere, to the lower 60s invof NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Heights will continue to rise aloft. High pressure at the
surface will move overhead by late Sunday morning, and then pass
offshore during Sunday afternoon and evening, where it should
become nearly stationary and remain in control through the
week.

The short term period will be dry and mostly sunny. Some energy
rounding the upper level ridge will pass overhead Sunday
afternoon/evening, but will likely just result in some high clouds.

Temperatures Sunday will be just a few degrees cooler than
Saturday, with highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 40s. As
the high shifts offshore later on Sunday a return flow sets up
and moisture increases. Dewpoints quickly return to the upper
50s inland and lower/mid 60s closer to the coast on Monday, with
high temps in the mid/upper 80s from NYC west, 80-85 for NYC and
most of southern CT, and 75-80 for most of Long Island and SE
CT. This should be the last day before a heat wave sets up for
the rest of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**Key Points**

* A long duration heat wave is expected Tuesday through next
  Saturday.

* The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index
  values of 95 to around 102 during this time.

* Not much relief at night as overnight lows will be in the mid 60s
  to the lower and mid 70s, with dew points remaining in the lower
  to mid 60s.

A strong deep layered ridge will be positioned over the east coast
by Monday night and remain in place through the upcoming weekend.
The ridge will flatten with the upper flow becoming more zonal
across the region Thursday through Saturday.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will initially be anchored off the
northeast coast, and then shift to the south and be positions off
the mid Atlantic coast Wednesday through Saturday.
This is in response to a northern stream upper trough and surface
low tracking across southern Canada into northern New England.

Low level flow on the west side of the high pressure will allow for
a southerly or southwesterly flow through much of the extended
period. This will allow for the advection of both low level moisture
and warm air. At this time the peak of the heat, and the highest
heat indices, are likely to occur Thursday and Friday. With the
anomalous strength of the ridge there is a chance that temperatures
across the interior may even peak at near 100 degrees. Also,
there will not be much relief at night as overnight lows drop
into the mid 60s and lower to mid 70s, especially Thursday night
and Friday night. No record high temperatures are expected
during the heat wave, however, there is a chance that a few
climate locations will set record high minimum temperatures
Thursday, June 20th. Also, humidity levels will remain elevated
with dew points mostly in the lower to mid 60s. However, with
the upper flow becoming more zonal there will be increased
chances for waves of energy to move across the region and
produce chances for increased clouds and afternoon/evening
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Until then with the strong
ridge these disturbances will be tracking west and north of the
area.

With the long duration of the heat and humidity advisories will
likely be issued for this event. Also, with the intense heat and
high humidity it is important to take precautions to protect one`s
health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration. The onset of the heat will be occurring as the
transition from spring to summer occurs, with the solstice
Thursday, June 20th at 446 PM EDT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds over the area from the north into Sunday.

VFR.

N-NW winds around 10 kt into this evening. Light northerly winds
tonight before gradually shifting NE-E, then southeast on Sunday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts to 20kt possible through 22z. Winds may vary NE to
N at KLGA for the rest of the afternoon. Chance of sea breeze
shifting winds south for a few hours starting near 21z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are
expected on all waters thru Thu night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Latest beach reports indicated no more than a moderate rip
current risk at the ocean beaches today. The moderate risk
continues both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MET