443
FXUS66 KOTX 230943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front Today will lead to critical fire weather
concerns over portions of central and eastern Washington with
widespread breezy to windy conditions. This will likely be
followed by temperatures cooling back down towards normal values
by Monday. Another warm up arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday before
the next weather system arrives on Thursday bringing another round
of breezy and showery conditions to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Today we will see elevated to critical
fire weather conditions due to a combination of gusty winds and very
low relative humidity values. The pressure gradient over the Inland
Northwest is strengthening as a trough nears the coastline of
British Columbia, and we`re already starting to see winds pick up.
Winds will only get stronger heading into this afternoon with
sustained westerly winds of 10 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 45 mph
expected.

Meanwhile, a dry cold front is sweeping across the region ushering
in much drier air than what we`ve seen over the past couple of days.
Relative humidity values will drop to 12 to 20 percent behind the
front for many locations. Rapid fire spread may occur with any new
and existing fires. A Red Flag Warning is in place for 1 PM to 8 PM
PDT this afternoon and evening for the Columbia Basin, Spokane area,
Palouse, Snake River area, Wenatchee area, and the Waterville
Plateau.

Temperatures today will peak in the upper 70s to low 80s, around 5
to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Low temperatures overnight
Sunday into Monday morning will be noticeably cooler as well (in the
40s for most places) with the dry airmass allowing heat to radiate
away from the surface more efficiently. Heading into Monday
afternoon, the pressure gradient over us will relax as we transition
to a more zonal flow pattern. Ridging will begin to build again on
Tuesday. Conditions will stay dry and skies will be clear through at
least the middle of the workweek with the exception of intermittent
shower chances over the North Cascades. /Fewkes

Tuesday through Saturday: Shortwave ridging will build across the
Northwest Tuesday before the next weather disturbance off the
West Coast approaches the WA/OR coastline. Temperatures will warm a
few degrees Tuesday into Wednesday with the frontal feature pushing
through Wednesday into Thursday. Two changes in the ensemble
guidance over the last 24 hours has been the timing of the trough
passage and the track. Wednesday evening now looks more favorable
(certain) for the trough passage to take place and the track has dug
a bit farther south into the central Oregon coast which will amplify
the southwest winds for central Washington into north Idaho as well
as increase chances for showers and storms mainly for north-central
Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle.

Wind - Wednesday and Thursday will be breezy with southwest winds
across the Basin and into the Palouse and L-C Valley. While the
surface winds Thursday don`t look as impressive as they do for today
(Sun June 23), the hazard for breezy conditions will be felt the
same. The relative humidity Wednesday and Thursday don`t look as dry
at this time, so fire weather concerns are lower with some Limited
risk across the southern Basin. Wind gusts from Wenatchee, Moses
Lake, Pullman, Lewiston will range from 30-40 mph Thursday.

Rain/Thunderstorms - The threat for high based
showers/thunderstorms will be limited and isolated Wednesday to the
far north-central part of Washington in the Okanogan Valley and
Okanogan Highlands. Friday has trended drier for
thunderstorm/shower chances in the Spokane - Coeur d`Alene area and
the better chances remain across far northern Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. Coincidentally, Thursday afternoon and evening
look better for northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle
including the Okanogan Valley to the West Plains and central Idaho
mountains from St Maries to Avery. Instability Wednesday through
Friday will mainly be confined to the north-central and northeast
portions of Washington and north Idaho in the higher terrain. Not a
huge moisture surge in PWAT anomalies so wind and brief rain will be
the threats to consider. /Dewey

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: A dry cold front will move through central Washington
tonight and into eastern Washington and north Idaho by early
Sunday morning. Conditions are expected to remain VFR with passing
mostly passing mid to layer clouds passing through. Winds will
pick up late Sunday morning and afternoon with breezy to gusty
southwest wind gusts up to 25 to 30 mph across much of the area.
Central Washington will see wind gusts up to 45 mph.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some
high resolution models are depicting flat cumulus around
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE in the late morning and afternoon around 5k feet.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  47  77  50  85  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  79  47  75  49  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        77  45  74  48  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       90  54  85  56  93  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       78  40  76  43  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      77  45  73  46  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        75  50  72  52  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     82  47  82  52  90  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      77  52  82  56  87  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           84  47  83  53  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern
     Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-
     Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower
     Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-
     Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone
     707).

&&

$$