332
FXUS66 KOTX 162251
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
351 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers will continue today over the Cascades
and northern mountains. Temperatures will trend cooler into the
start of early next week with the potential for frost in colder
pockets Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the
mountains will be possible each afternoon through midweek with
gradual warming by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the northern WA mountain and Cascades through this
evening. Rain amounts will be less in these showers than what was
seen yesterday with a few lightning strikes possible. Once sunset
arrives, these showers will dissipate leaving the region with partly
cloudy to overcast skies. High temperatures today will remain in the
50s and 60s, with overnight temperatures slightly warmer than what
was seen last night.

Monday will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the eastern half of WA and ID Panhandle. These showers have a
potential to be similar to Saturdays, with heavier rain and small
hail. Best timing for these storms is between 1 PM and midnight,
with showers moving southward. Temperatures will be in the 60s and
70s, which will be the start of the warming trend for the week. /KM

Tuesday through Sunday: Tuesday starts off with split flow composed
of upper level ridging with axis over the British Columbia coast
coupled with a trof to the south with its axis just out of phase to
the east. The resulting somewhat cool northerly component to the
flow on the east edge of the upper level ridge empties into Eastern
Washington and North Idaho initially but this all gets displaced to
the east as the ridge axis moves inland while the upper level trof
in the southern branch of the split more or less remains in place.
The resulting longwave ridging and/or sorta split flow looking area
is then positioned over Eastern Washington and North Idaho and may
allow for some disturbances to glance the area either as they
propagate through either branches of the flow (either overtopping
the ridge part to the north and/or thru the trof part to the south)
so a minor mention of showers and thunderstorms remains in place
Tuesday and Wednesday. Day 4 Clusters and beyond suggest a low
pressure system is expected to deepen and intensify in the Gulf of
Alaska and this will aid in pumping up and amplifying the ridging
downstream and closer to Eastern Washington and North Idaho. So in
addition to a continued warming trend the mention of precip for the
remainder of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend is either
considerably less in coverage or not mentioned with a dry forecast.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers will continue into this evening to increase
this afternoon with some embedded thunderstorms across NE WA and
north ID. Showers have popped up near sites but have not passed
over any sites. Showers will diminish this evening leaving
overcast to partly cloudy skies overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence in continued VFR conditions through the
day.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  69  44  70  45  77 /   0  40  30  30   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  67  44  66  44  75 /  10  30  50  50  10   0
Pullman        41  62  41  66  42  74 /  20  50  40  20   0   0
Lewiston       48  71  48  74  50  83 /  40  60  30  10   0   0
Colville       33  69  37  68  38  75 /  30  50  50  70  20  20
Sandpoint      38  66  43  62  42  70 /  20  50  70  80  30  20
Kellogg        43  60  46  61  45  72 /  20  60  60  60  10  10
Moses Lake     43  74  45  76  47  83 /  20  20  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      48  71  49  76  52  80 /  30  20   0  10   0   0
Omak           43  75  45  76  47  81 /  40  40  20  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$