574
FXUS64 KOUN 151919
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
219 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A short wave centered over western Kansas is slowly making its way
eastward. Cloud cover and a few showers and storms can be seen along
the lead edge of this wave extending down through western Oklahoma /
eastern panhandles. CAMs appear to be struggling to resolve this
activity.

CAMs generate more organized thunderstorms along an axis of surface
convergence running through the panhandles and northwest Oklahoma
this afternoon. As temperature/dewpoint spreads increase and modest
deep layer shear develops, these thunderstorms could pose a strong
to severe downburst wind risk. These storms will try to make their
way eastward, running mainly on low-level jet energy (so, some
uncertainty in how far east they`re able to make it before
dissipating). One additional factor is we`ve seen signs of a few
MCVs on radar / satellite, including a potential MCV in southwest
Oklahoma that could help sustain a few showers into early morning.

After the passage of this wave, tomorrow should be partly cloudy,
breezy, and warm (highs in the 90s).

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

In between a trough over the northwest CONUS and a ridge over the
eastern coast, temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm with
only occasional low rain chances.

Models depict a front approaching (and stalling near) northern
Oklahoma on Tuesday, yielding low (20-30%) rain chances across
northern Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday. We could
additionally see some low rain chances associated with flow from the
gulf around the western edge of the upper high mid to late week next
week.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail with gusty southerly winds most
of the forecast period. TAF mention of TSRA will be confined to
KWWR and KCSM this forecast issuance as elevated moist layer
interacts with weak and slow moving waves moving out of the
Panhandles. There is a chance for another MCV to develop overnight
and keep scattered high based SHRA/TSRA going toward and beyond
12Z near KLAW/KSPS but probabilities too low to mention with this
issuance. Something to watch for in later forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  90  73  92 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         72  94  72  94 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  74  93  74  93 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           70  96  71  95 /  30  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     73  93  72  94 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         73  92  72  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11