543
FXUS64 KOUN 210734
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
234 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

    - 60-80% shower/storm chances Saturday night through Monday
      morning. Marginal risk for severe storms Sunday afternoon /
      evening.

    - Hot/humid conditions continue Saturday, cold front brings
      cooler weather Sunday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Another hot day today with temperatures climbing into the upper 90s
to just over 100 degrees. This time we should stay just below heat
advisory criteria for the most part.

Showers and storms are expected to move into northwest Oklahoma late
this afternoon as the upper low shifts east across the four corners
region. Most of the CAMs have this convective activity moving
into our forecast area between 4pm and 6pm, then slowly shifting
southeastward through the night.

Elevated instability and deep layer shear look to be just enough to
support a low risk for elevated hailers. What may end up being the
bigger issue is heavy rain with the potential for localized
flooding. PWATs in northwest Oklahoma reach to around 2 standard
deviations above normal (1.5 to 1.75 inches). Additionally,
steering flow should have storms moving mostly parallel to the
surface trough. One mitigating factor will be the progressive
nature of the system. A second mitigating factor will be higher
flash flood guidance, given the lack of recent rainfall (1 hr
guidance is in the 2.5 to 4 inch range). Overall, this will yield
a low risk for flooding across western Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High chances (60-80%) for showers and storms will progress across
the area with the cold front on Sunday as the main upper wave ejects
into the central Plains. A marginal risk for severe storms will
accompany this activity, mainly along a broad area centered on the I-
44 corridor. Heavy rain and flooding will again be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening, mainly over southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas (where HREF has the highest QPF amounts). Conditions
look similar to what was described for Saturday night (see Short
Term), though the HREF is a little more aggressive with
precipitation amounts. Rain chances will diminish Monday morning as
the front pushes south of the area.

Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front. Sunday will
feature a tight temperature gradient with highs in the 70s / 80s
generally northwest of I-44 and in the low to mid 90s southeast of I-
44. Sunday night lows will drop into the 40s across northwest
Oklahoma. By Monday highs are expected to be in the 70s across much
of the area. The cooler temperatures will persist into midweek as
upper troughing remains over the central US.

We may see additional shower/storm chances Tuesday into Wednesday as
additional shortwave energy rounds the base of the trough, but
models are not consistent on the track of this wave and where
associated rain chances will be. For now, our highest chances during
this period are across the southwestern half of the area, but this
could change.

Day/Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon tomorrow.
Current SHRA and TSRA expected to stay north and west of northern
Oklahoma terminals. By late tomorrow afternoon and evening,
chances for TSRA and at least MVFR conditions will increase
substantially across northwest Oklahoma, into north central and
west central Oklahoma by end of forecast, so will include
PROB30/TEMPO groups there. The wind shift to northerly and TSRA
chances will spread south and east tomorrow night and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  71  85  55 /   0  10  60  70
Hobart OK         97  69  81  53 /  10  40  80  60
Wichita Falls TX  99  74  91  58 /   0   0  50  60
Gage OK           95  59  71  45 /  50  80  60  20
Ponca City OK     98  68  82  53 /  10  40  70  60
Durant OK         97  73  94  63 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11