766
FXUS64 KOUN 201107
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
607 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

- Hot/humid conditions continue through Saturday, followed by cooler
weather starting Sunday.

- A few isolated storms possible over northern Oklahoma this
  afternoon, with the potential for a severe downburst or two.

- Medium chances for showers and storms Saturday night through
  Monday morning associated with a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Friday will be another hot day, featuring near record high
temperatures (upper 90s / lower 100s). With humidity, heat indices
will range from about 102 to 107 degrees. HREF guidance suggests
most of our eastern counties will have a 40-70% chance of hitting
heat advisory criteria. Winds will remain light.

An upper high centered over central Texas will keep most of the area
mostly sunny. A few isolated storms may form in parts of northern
Oklahoma this afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper
high. Environment is not too impressive in regard to organized
convection, but could support a strong downburst or two.

Friday night will continue the warm and humid theme with lows in the
70s and dewpoints in the 60s.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The week will end with one more hot day (though slightly less hot
than Friday).

An upper low swinging up through the four corners region through
Colorado will support increasing chances for showers and storms in
northwest Oklahoma Saturday night. As this low continues to lift,
rain chances will spread across the area Sunday and Sunday night. A
cold front will sweep through the forecast area on Sunday, providing
some focus for this convection and bringing cooler temperatures
behind it. Overall, the synoptic setup looks supportive of a few
strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening with
modest instability and deep layer shear predicted. High PWATs will
mean we will need to watch for a heavy rain and flooding potential
as well.

Sunday looks to feature a tight temperature gradient with
cooler temperatures generally in the 80s northwest of I-44 and some
lingering 90s southeast of that boundary. By Monday, the entire
forecast area will have dropped into the 70s and low 80s. These
cooler temperatures should continue through much of next week.

Another system is supposed to swing through the central plains on
Tuesday, though there is considerably more uncertainty with that
one. Models differ as to whether to cut off the low before it
traverses Oklahoma. For now, we`ll continue with 20-40% PoPs on
Tuesday / Tuesday night associated with this system.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through
the period. A pocket of scattered showers continues to drift
across north-central Oklahoma early this morning and may impact
KSWO through ~14 UTC. No impact to category is expected.

By this evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to evolve from the Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. While
impact to KWWR is uncertain, have added a PROB30 mention to
account for this potential. Mid and high cloud coverage is
expected to increase by late Friday evening into early Saturday
morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK        100  72  97  71 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX 101  73  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          101  71  95  61 /  20  20  30  60
Ponca City OK     98  76  98  71 /  20  20  10  40
Durant OK         99  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...34