Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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263 FXUS64 KOUN 260843 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 343 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Thunderstorms across Northeast Oklahoma may clip east central into southeast Oklahoma as they move southward this morning. Otherwise, dangerously hot conditions are expected once again across Oklahoma and north Texas. A boundary will advance southward and will be located near I-40 during the afternoon with weak surface confluence. Unfortunately, no noticeably cooler air mass is expected behind this boundary. Temperatures may actually be a little higher along and ahead of the boundary as 850 mb temperatures are progged to be higher than yesterday. As a result, forecast highs range from the upper 90s to upper 100s deg F. Combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s deg F, dangerous heat indices from 105 to 115 deg F are expected. In addition, winds will be lighter than yesterday, so the wet bulb globe temperature risk has a high probability to reach the extreme risk category. In the extreme risk category, working or exercising in direct sunlight will stress your body in about 15 minutes. Opted to expand to Excessive Heat Warning farther north to include the Oklahoma metro and points to the east given higher confidence that heat indices will reach 110 deg F or higher in this area. While synoptic-scale ascent appears nebulous, confluence along the boundary and daytime heating may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in an uncapped atmosphere (which is in agreement with some convective-allowing and parameterized models). The area to watch development for would be near or just south of the boundary during the late afternoon and evening hours with a 20 to 30% chance. If thunderstorms develop, damaging wind gusts are possible given the large downdraft CAPE (~1600 J/kg). Large hail is also possible given the deep buoyancy, weak low-level shear, and modest effective bulk layer shear. Additional thunderstorms may also move in from the Texas panhandle later in the evening hours. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Thursday-Friday: The mid-level ridge will become elongated west- to-east across the southern half of the United States with northern Oklahoma on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow. The remnants of thunderstorm complexes may approach northern Oklahoma Thursday night into Friday morning and Friday night in Saturday morning. While the most intense part will likely stay to the north, some thunderstorms with strong winds may make into Oklahoma. Saturday-Sunday: A mid-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region with a trailing cold front advancing southward across the Plains. The cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms with the highest chance across northern Oklahoma late Saturday into Sunday morning. There remains uncertainty/ensemble spread on how far south the cold front will advance and the magnitude of the cool down for Sunday. Probabilistic guidance has a 10 to 15 deg F range for high temperatures on Sunday (using the 10th and 90th percentiles). The magnitude of the cool down may end up being highly dependent on the amount of precipitation and cloud cover. Currently, the most likely scenario is northern Oklahoma seeing highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and western north Texas/southern Oklahoma seeing highs in the upper 90s and low 100s deg F. Monday-Tuesday: Any cool down will likely be brief as temperatures are forecast to rise early next week with a strengthening mid-level ridge and attendant low-level thermal ridge. Mahale && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Ongoing thunderstorms with variable gusty winds in their wake should gradually diminish over the next few hours, unlikely to impact any more TAF sites. Outside of convection, south winds continue until a front moves into northern Oklahoma this morning, bringing east to northeasterly winds behind it. This front is expected to stall around I-40 by early afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low for mention in the TAFs at this time. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 102 75 97 79 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 106 75 103 81 / 30 30 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 105 78 103 81 / 10 20 0 0 Gage OK 102 73 101 79 / 0 20 10 20 Ponca City OK 99 71 94 78 / 10 10 10 10 Durant OK 99 75 97 78 / 20 20 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>017-021-022. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ018>020-023>048-050>052. TX...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...14