981
FXUS64 KOUN 260513
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening across the
northern half of Oklahoma. A few stronger storms could produce
damaging wind gusts, as downdraft CAPE will be over 1400 J/kg.
Storm intensity will weaken into the evening, and should be out of
the area by midnight or shortly after. A weak frontal boundary
will move in beginning early tomorrow morning, and will continue
through the area during the afternoon. This boundary is expected
to stall south and east of I-44, where severe storms along the
boundary are possible. Thermodynamic profiles tomorrow afternoon
will support large hail and damaging winds with any stronger storm
that develops. Head headlines will also continue tomorrow
afternoon across the whole area. An excessive heat warning will be
in effect starting at 11 am until 9 pm as there is increased
confidence in heat indices over 110 F for southern and
southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas. A heat advisory is
also in effect for for the rest of the area during the same
timeframe.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Heat headlines will likely be needed through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend. There may be some brief relief of the
heat during the latter portions of the weekend, but temperatures
will quickly bounce back up to upper 90s and low 100s. Daily low
chances of thunderstorms are possible through the weekend, mainly
across the northern half of the area. Looking ahead to next week,
there is no signal for longer duration relief from the heat that
we have been getting recently as we will be sitting under a mid-
level ridge.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Ongoing thunderstorms with variable gusty winds in their wake should
gradually diminish over the next few hours, unlikely to impact any
more TAF sites. Outside of convection, south winds continue until
a front moves into northern Oklahoma this morning, bringing east
to northeasterly winds behind it. This front is expected to stall
around I-40 by early afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low for
mention in the TAFs at this time.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 101  76  98  80 /  10  10  10   0
Hobart OK        104  77 102  80 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 104  77 103  80 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          100  73 100  78 /  10  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     98  71  93  79 /   0  20  10  10
Durant OK        100  76  98  78 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ004>032.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ033>048-050>052.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...14