147
FXUS64 KOUN 132340
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
640 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Thunderstorms are developing this afternoon along a cold front in
Kansas and a weak surface trough in northeast New Mexico/western
Kansas. Ahead of the front in Oklahoma and western north Texas, a
capping inversion will prevent develop through the
afternoon/evening. Storms that form to our west and north may
move into northern (northwest) Oklahoma mainly after 6-7 pm. Weak
mid-level flow and high-based clouds will support strong to
damaging wind gusts with some of the storms this evening. Storms
that reach north central Oklahoma will be later in the evening and
should have a reduced risk of strong winds.

Another hot day is in store for Friday, as the upper ridge builds
over Oklahoma and western north Texas. Surface winds are expected
to be lighter Friday afternoon, but dewpoint temperatures and
humidity are expected to be slightly lower. Afternoon heat index
values will approach 105 across northern Oklahoma, but should
remain just below advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A shortwave trough will lift northeast across the southern/central
Rockies Friday into Friday night. Increasing lift associated with
this feature, and a stalled weak front across southern and western
Kansas, should result in thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms
that form should generally move northeast, so thunderstorm
chances will remain rather low for Friday night into early
Saturday. The timing of the shortwave trough lifting across the
central Plains on Saturday may not be ideal for late afternoon or
early evening storms. For now will keep mainly slight/chance PoPs
in the forecast for northern Oklahoma.

By late in the weekend into early next week, the synoptic pattern
will place the southern Plains between a ridge over the eastern third
of the U.S. and a developing trough to our west.  This should favor
a deep southerly flow through roughly 700 mb. This is expected to
bring slightly cooler daytime temperatures with low chances of
showers and storms. The thunderstorms should generally be confined
to parts of western and southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The main issue with this aviation package will be the potential of
strong winds underneath and near thunderstorms that will likely
affect portions of northern Oklahoma this evening. The highest
chances of the strong winds with storms in the vicinity will be at
KWWR, but it will also be possible at KPNC as well later in the
evening depending on how the storms evolve in Kansas. Even as
showers and thunderstorms dissipate later this evening, there
could be strong winds associated with these as well. The potential
of them at any specific TAF site is relatively low, but scattered
showers and storms will be around northern Oklahoma this evening.

After the storms dissipate and the winds calm down late this
evening, no significant aviation issues are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  95  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         71  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  99  69  95 /  20   0  20  20
Ponca City OK     71  95  71  95 /  20   0  10   0
Durant OK         68  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...26